Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.87%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
62.87% | 22.08% | 15.05% |
Both teams to score 45.09% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.36% | 51.64% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.58% | 73.42% |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.13% | 15.87% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.91% | 45.09% |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.59% | 46.41% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.97% | 82.03% |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
1-0 @ 13.55% 2-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 7.66% 3-1 @ 5.88% 4-0 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.7% 3-2 @ 2.26% 5-0 @ 1.3% 4-2 @ 1.04% 5-1 @ 1% Other @ 1.91% Total : 62.85% | 1-1 @ 10.4% 0-0 @ 7.37% 2-2 @ 3.68% Other @ 0.63% Total : 22.07% | 0-1 @ 5.66% 1-2 @ 4% 0-2 @ 2.17% 1-3 @ 1.02% 2-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.26% Total : 15.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |