Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 49.53%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Southend United had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Southend United win it was 0-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.