Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 47.32%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.