Alaves will be bidding to use home advantage to claim a positive result in the first leg of their Segunda Division playoff final against Levante on Sunday night.
Luis Garcia's side recorded a 3-1 aggregate success over Eibar in the semi-finals to advance, while Levante comfortably dispatched Albacete in the final four, running out 6-1 winners on aggregate.
Match preview
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Alaves were relegated from La Liga last season after six straight campaigns in the top flight, so they are bidding to bounce back into the top division at the first time of asking.
The Blue and Whites fell just short in terms of automatic promotion, finishing one point behind second-placed Las Palmas, while they were also one point behind third-placed Levante in the regular season.
Alaves took on Eibar in the semi-finals of the playoffs, drawing the first leg 1-1 before recording a 2-0 victory on home soil to progress to the final courtesy of a 3-1 aggregate success.
Abde Rebbach scored inside the first minute at Estadio de Mendizorroza on Thursday to hand Garcia's side an advantage, before Asier Villalibre came off the bench to net a second, and the Basque outfit will be aiming to again triumph on home soil in this match.
El Glorioso have not actually been beaten at home in any competition since the middle of January, with Sevilla recording a 1-0 victory in the Copa del Rey, while Alaves' last league defeat in front of their own fans was actually against Levante in the middle of December.
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Levante were also relegated from La Liga last season, finishing in 19th position, and they missed out an automatic promotion from the Segunda Division this term on goal difference.
Indeed, Javier Calleja's side finished level on points (72) with second-placed Las Palmas, while the two teams could not be separated by the head-to-head record, so it was left to goal difference to decide the position behind the champions Granada, with Las Palmas boasting a +20 record to Levante's +16.
The Frogs will enter this match in excellent form, winning each of their last four matches, including both legs of their playoff semi-final with Albacete.
Levante put themselves in an excellent position to progress when they were recorded a 3-1 victory in the first leg of their last-four contest, before running out 3-0 winners at home in the second leg on Wednesday.
Los Azulgranas beat Alaves 2-0 home and away during the regular season, while they were also 3-1 winners when the two teams locked horns in the latter stages of the 2021-22 La Liga campaign.
Team News
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Alaves will again be without the services of Nikola Maras due to a knee injury, while Salva Sevilla was forced off in the first half of Thursday's clash with Eibar, so he is expected to miss out here.
Toni Moya should therefore come in for a start in central midfield, while Villalibre's goal off the bench in the second leg of the semi-final could see him given the nod in the final third of the field.
Luis Rioja has been the team's main source of goals this season, scoring 10 times in all competitions, and the 29-year-old will again feature in a forward area in this match.
Levante, meanwhile, will be missing Jose Campana and Pablo Martinez due to long-term knee injuries; Robert Ibanez is also a major doubt for the visitors due to a muscular problem.
Mohamed Bouldini and Joni Montiel have contributed 15 goals between them this season, and the pair will again start on Sunday, while Roger Brugue's brace in the second leg of the semi-final against Albacete should see him retain his spot in the final third of the field.
Head coach Calleja opted for a 4-4-2 formation last time out and is unlikely to change for this contest, with Jorge de Frutos another certain starter in an advanced area.
Rober Pier was forced off at the interval against Albacete last time out with an apparent injury, which could see Ruben Vezo introduced in the middle of the defence.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Sivera; Tenaglia, Abqar, Sedlar, Duarte; Moya, Blanco; Rioja, Guridi, Rebbach; Villalibre
Levante possible starting lineup:
Femenias; Pubill, Postigo, Vezo, Munoz; Montiel, Iborra, Pepelu, De Frutos; Bouldini, Brugue
We say: Alaves 1-2 Levante
Levante were excellent in both legs of the semi-finals, and they appear to have the momentum heading into the final. Alaves are more than capable of picking up a positive result in the first leg, but we just have a feeling that a strong Levante side will be able to claim an advantage on Sunday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 40.57%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Levante had a probability of 28.67%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.8%), while for a Levante win it was 0-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood.
Matt Law
