Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.12%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Toluca win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pachuca would win this match.
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