Seeking their first-ever US Open Cup title, Los Angeles FC host Sporting Kansas City at BMO Stadium in the final of that tournament on Wednesday.
An 83rd-minute penalty in their semi-final fixture last month lifted the Black and Gold to a 1-0 triumph over the Seattle Sounders, while Sporting were 2-0 winners versus Indy Eleven, advancing into the final of this competition for a fifth time.
Match preview
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LAFC have made it to yet another final and will aim to finally break through and lift a major trophy for the first time since capturing the 2022 MLS Cup.
Wednesday will be the fifth time Steve Cherundolo's men appear in the final of a major tournament since winning the league title in 2022, with LA losing their last four finals, including a 3-1 defeat to the Columbus Crew at this stage of the Leagues Cup last month.
The Black and Gold have won their two home fixtures at this tournament by a combined margin of 6-1, including a 3-1 win against New Mexico United in the quarter-finals.
In 22 home fixtures across all competitions this season, Los Angeles FC have claimed 15 victories while suffering just two defeats.
Other than their 2022 MLS Western Conference final triumph over Austin FC, LAFC have never won a competitive final in normal time, defeating the Philadelphia Union on penalties in the 2022 MLS Cup final while losing four of their six appearances in the final of a major tournament after 90 minutes.
The Black and Gold are unbeaten in four consecutive meetings with SKC across all competitions at BMO Stadium, though their last home victory against them occurred during the 2022 MLS campaign (3-1).
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Kansas City had little trouble with Indy Eleven in the US Open Cup semi-finals, holding the visitors to only 29% possession throughout the match.
On Wednesday, they can equal Bethlehem Steel and Maccabee Los Angeles for the most US Open Cup titles (five), with Sporting claiming four in their history.
Unlike LAFC, Sporting have been rather successful in the final of a major competition, winning six of their seven cup final appearances, including all four of their US Open Cup finals.
Over the weekend, this group were officially eliminated from MLS playoff contention with a 2-0 home defeat versus Minnesota United.
Peter Vermes's men are winless in their last five away matches across all competitions, four of which ended in a defeat for his side.
SKC are winless in their last six competitive fixtures against LAFC, winning only two contests at BMO Stadium all-time, in 2018 (2-0) and 2021 (4-1).
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Team News
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LA may be without Cristian Olivera, who is dealing with a leg injury, while Jesus Murillo has a sore knee and is expected to miss the final.
Lorenzo Dellavalle is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Marlon is still waiting to have his visa situation sorted out after being added to the team earlier this month.
An 83rd-minute penalty converted by Denis Bouanga powered the Black and Gold past the Sounders in the semi-finals, with the Gabonese international currently on 24 goals across all competitions this year, while Hugo Lloris stopped the only shot that he faced for his first clean sheet of the tournament.
Sporting will not have Nemanja Radoja available for this upcoming fixture, with the Serbian still recovering from a groin injury.
First-choice goalkeeper Tim Melia has won 12 of his 13 career US Open Cup appearances for SKC, while Daniel Salloi is their all-time leading goalscorer at this tournament, netting eight times, including the winner against the New York Red Bulls in their previous US Open Cup final victory in 2017.
Johnny Russell and Daniel Rosero found the back of the net in their semi-final triumph last month, while Melia made four stops to collect a clean sheet.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Segura, Chanot, Long; Hollingshead, O'Brien, Sanchez, Campos; Bogusz, Giroud, Bouanga
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Shelton, Rosero, Fontas, Ndenbe; Davis, Walter; Thommy; Russell, Agada, Salloi
We say: Los Angeles FC 2-0 Sporting Kansas City
Sporting have conceded the second-most goals in the MLS Western Conference this year (58), and against some of the deadliest attackers in MLS, we believe it will be difficult for them to upset a team like the Black and Gold, who are keen to prove they can deliver in big games.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 69.38%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 13.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 3-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 1-2 (3.86%).
Joel Lefevre
