For a second successive season, Los Angeles FC and the Vancouver Whitecaps will meet in the opening round of the MLS Cup playoffs, with game one of that best-of-three series taking place on Sunday at BMO Stadium.
In the wild-card round on Wednesday, the Caps thumped the Portland Timbers 5-0 to advance to this stage, while the Black and Gold ended the regular season with a 3-1 win over the San Jose Earthquakes, finishing first in the Western Conference.
Match preview
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Los Angeles took care of business down the stretch of the 2024 regular season, winning their final six matches across all competitions.
That enabled them to edge out the Los Angeles Galaxy for first on goal difference, the second time in the last three seasons that they finished as the top team in their conference.
Steve Cherundolo guided them to their third-best season in terms of points this year (64), behind only his MLS Cup-winning team in 2022 (67) and the 2019 side, which won the Supporters' Shield (72 points).
The Black and Gold are unbeaten in their last four competitive home fixtures, winning five successive playoff games at BMO Stadium.
Their victory on Decision Day against the Quakes was the first time domestically this year that they had won an MLS match after conceding the opener, with the Black and Gold collecting seven points during the regular season when doing so.
Los Angeles FC won both regular season matches against the Whitecaps this year, including a 3-0 triumph at BMO Stadium back in May.
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Faced with a must-win situation on Wednesday, the Caps came through in a big way, winning a post-season fixture for only the second time since coming to MLS.
That ended their four-match losing run in this competition, with this team failing to win seven consecutive league fixtures before then.
While they were listed as the home team, the match occurred at Providence Park and was the first time this team had won an MLS playoff encounter away from BC Place Stadium.
Vanni Sartini's men have not won a match in California in normal time since March, when they defeated the San Jose Earthquakes 2-0 at PayPal Park.
Vancouver have not won consecutive games since July, which was also the last time they won back-to-back MLS encounters away from home.
While the Whitecaps have not beaten LAFC in normal time at BMO Stadium since June 2023 (3-2), they managed to claim a shootout victory against them during the Leagues Cup this past summer.
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Team News
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In their final encounter of the regular season, LA were missing Jesus Murillo with a sore knee, Lorenzo Dellavalle was sidelined due to a torn ACL and David Martinez came on as a substitute after previously sustaining a minor knock.
Cherundolo made two changes to his starting 11 last weekend as Maxime Chanot and Denis Bouanga came into the lineup in place of Marlon and Martinez.
Bouanga netted the equaliser against the Goonies, with Eduard Atuesta and Marlon also finding the back of the net, while Hugo Lloris made four stops, ending the domestic campaign three shy of 100, the second-most saves in a single season for this club.
On Wednesday, the Caps' Jeevan Badwal was unavailable because of a knee injury, while Levonte Johnson featured from the bench despite a knock.
Only four players that were in the starting 11 versus Real Salt Lake began their wild-card showdown against the Timbers, including Ranko Veselinovic, Tristan Blackmon, Fafa Picault and Brian White.
A hat trick by captain Ryan Gauld was more than enough to see off Portland in midweek, with White and Stuart Armstrong also finding the back of the net and Yohei Takaoka making four stops for the clean sheet.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Long, Chanot, Segura; Hollingshead, Tillman, O'Brien, Campos; Bogusz, Giroud, Bouanga
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Takaoka; Utvik, Vevelinovic, Blackmon; Laborda, Cubas, Armstrong, Adekugbe; Picault, White, Gauld
We say: Los Angeles FC 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
The Black and Gold have been in so many of these big games and found a way through, and there is no reason to believe that will change this weekend.
As brilliant as the Caps were in the attacking third on Wednesday, penetrating the LAFC backline may prove to be a much tougher chore, and their opponents rarely need more than a half-chance or two to win, which is why we are tipping the home team to emerge victorious.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 70.08%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 13.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.24%) and 3-1 (7.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 1-2 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Los Angeles FC in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Los Angeles FC.
