In the first game of their two-legged showdown in the second Champions League qualifying round, Ludogorets Razgrad will host Dinamo Minsk at the Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad) on Wednesday.
The hosts progressed from the first round with a 3-2 aggregate win over Dinamo Batumi, while the visitors narrowly defeated Pyunik Yerevan 1-0 on aggregate, thanks to a 90th-minute winner in the second leg.
Match preview
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Ludogorets once again find themselves competing for a place in Europe's most prestigious competition this season after winning their 13th successive Bulgarian First League title in 2023-24.
Ludogorets have reached the group stage of a European competition in each of the last eight seasons, but not since 2016-17 have they successfully qualified for the group stage of the Champions League.
A convincing 3-1 victory in the first leg against Dinamo Batumi put Ludogorets in the driving seat ahead of their trip to Georgia, but a goal just three minutes into the second leg made for a tense finish, ultimately holding on to advance into the second round.
While that second-leg defeat did not deny George Dermendzhiev's side a place in the second qualifying round, it did extend their unwanted streak of losses to five consecutive away legs in the Champions League.
Ludogorets have, on the other hand, been extremely formidable when playing at home in European competition, winning 12 of their last 17 European matches when playing at their own stadium.
In contrast to their hosts' immense domestic success, Dinamo Minsk won their first Vysshaya league title since 2004 last year, finishing on 69 points from 28 games and seven points above second place.
That triumph has given Dinamo Minsk the opportunity to compete for a place in the Champions League for the first time since the 2005-06 season, although they have been regulars in the Europa League, participating in every qualifying campaign from 2013 to 2021.
The visitors dominated both legs of their first qualifying round against Pyunik Yerevan but only narrowly progressed with a 1-0 win on aggregate, scoring the decisive goal in the final minutes of the second leg.
Vadim Skripchenko's team come into this game undefeated in their last 12 matches across all competitions, conceding only one goal in their last eight, and currently lead the Belarusian top tier after 15 unbeaten games.
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Team News
The hosts could revert to the same starting lineup that secured a 3-1 victory in the first leg of their first qualifying round against Dinamo Batumi, with a front three of Rick, Bernard Tekpetey, and Rwan Cruz likely to feature having started each of the last three matches.
Pedro Naressi has also been a regular starter in the middle of the park for Ludogorets in recent matches, and the Brazilian is expected to partner Todor Nedelev and Ivajlo Chochev on Wednesday.
The away side could also name the same 11 that eventually secured their place in the second qualifying round with a 1-0 win in the second leg of their showdown with Pyunik.
Pavel Sedko, who has scored five goals in the league this campaign, returned to the bench for that game after a minor injury, and the midfielder could be used off the bench in this one.
Ludogorets Razgrad possible starting lineup:
Padt; Witry, Verdon, Almeida, Nedyalkov; Naressi, Nedelev, Chochev; Rick, Cruz, Tekpetey
Dinamo Minsk possible starting lineup:
Lapoukhov; Lopes, Gavrilovich, Politevich, Pigas; Demchenko, Selyava, Shkolik; Zherdev, Melnichenko, Podstrelov
We say: Ludogorets Razgrad 1-1 Dinamo Minsk
These two sides come into this game in fantastic form in their domestic competitions, while both were also impressive for large spells of their first qualifying round ties.
While Ludogorets have been strong at home in recent European fixtures, the visitors are unbeaten in their last seven away matches, suggesting this game is likely to end in a draw.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Dinamo Minsk had a probability of 17.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Dinamo Minsk win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
Ellis Stevens
