Maccabi Tel Aviv take on Qarabag FK on Thursday evening knowing that victory could be enough to earn a place in the Europa League last 32.

Despite having already been eliminated from the competition, Qarabag will be desperate to ensure that they do not end Group I without recording a point.

Match preview

Villarreal's Carlos Bacca celebrates scoring against Maccabi Tel Aviv on November 5, 2020 © Reuters

Having witnessed his side suffer a heavy defeat to Villarreal on matchday three, Maccabi Tel Aviv boss Giorgos Donis would have had concerns regarding the reverse fixture on home territory.

However, the Israeli side produced a resolute performance, fighting back to claim a 1-1 draw to remain in second spot in the group.

With Sivasspor to come next week, Maccabi still have much work to do, and Donis will acknowledge that his players must take advantage of Qarabag's lack of confidence.

Maccabi have improved on the domestic front in recent weeks, with their 3-0 success over Hapoel Kfar Saba at the weekend extending their unbeaten record to six matches.

Qarabag have been equally impressive in the Azerbaijani top flight, recording 15 points from seven matches to sit in first position on goal difference.

Gurban Gurbanov and his squad have had much less to shout about on the continent with four successive defeats resulting in their early exit from this tournament.

However, that does not tell the whole story after Qarabag squandered leads against Villarreal and Sivasspor in their previous home fixtures.

They also only suffered defeat in the reverse fixture by a 1-0 scoreline, ultimately losing out to Yonatan Cohen's 10th-minute strike in Tel Aviv.

Qarabag FK Europa League form: LLLL
Qarabag FK form (all competitions): WLWWLD

Maccabi Tel Aviv Europa League form: WWLD
Maccabi Tel Aviv form (all competitions): DLWWDW

Team News

Qarabag manager Gurban Gurbanov pictured on November 5, 2020 © Reuters

Qarabag will be able to call upon Filip Ozobic, who has served a one-match suspension for three yellow cards.

The Croatian could come back into the side as a replacement for Owusu Kwabena, while Abdellah Zoubir should feature after only being named as a substitute at the weekend.

Maccabi will be without left-back Saborit, who was handed a late red card in the meeting with Villarreal.

Ofir Davidzada is expected to take his spot in defence, but former Blackburn Rovers man Nick Blackman is likely to be named among the replacements.

Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Mahammadaliyev; Guerrier, Qarayev, Renteria, Jafarguliyev; Matic, Ibrahimli; Bayramov, Ozobic, Zoubir; Anar

Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting lineup:
Tenenbaum; Kandil, Tibi, Hernandez, Davidzada; Biton, Glazer, Peretz, Cohen; Golasa, Pesic

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We say: Qarabag FK 1-2 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Despite their losing streak, Qarabag have been far more competitive in this group than their results suggest. Nevertheless, with Sivasspor to come on matchday six, Maccabi will be motivated to get a potentially-decisive result on the board on Thursday night, something which could see them show a greater cutting edge in attack.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Maccabi Tel Aviv had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Maccabi Tel Aviv win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.