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Mali national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage
Jan 20, 2022 at 7pm UK
 
Mauritania national football team

Mali
2 - 0
Mauritania

Haidara (2'), Kone (49' pen.)
Bissouma (60')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Abeid (48'), Thiam (78')

Preview: Mali vs. Mauritania - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and Mauritania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

In the final round of group-stage matches at the Africa Cup of Nations, Mali and Mauritania go head to head at the Douala Stadium on Thursday.

Mauritania will look to bid the tournament farewell on a high note after losing their opening two games, while the Eagles only need a draw to confirm their place in the round of 16.


Match preview

Mali's Ibrahim Mounkoro celebrates with teammates after saving a penalty from Tunisia's Wahbi Khazri on January 12, 2022© Reuters

Mali were denied an early ticket to the last 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations last Sunday when they were held to a 1-1 draw by a spirited Gambia side.

In a cagey affair, Ibrahima Kone scored what seemed to be the winner from the penalty spot in the 79th minute, but Musa Barrow came up trumps for the Scorpions as he converted his 90th-minute penalty to force a share of the spoils.

Prior to that, Mohamed Magassouba's side got their continental title hunt underway on a brilliant note as they saw off Tunisia 1-0 in last Wednesday's group opener courtesy of Kone's 48th-minute penalty.

Mali, who are tied on four points with Gambia at the top of Group F, head into Thursday's game unbeaten in each of their last nine competitive games, claiming seven wins and two draws since a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Guinea in the AFCON qualifiers back in March.

This superb run also saw the Eagles secure smooth entry into the playoffs of the 2022 FIFA World Cup after topping Group E with 16 points from six games, while scoring 11 goals and conceding nine.

Mali now need a draw to make it to the knockout stages and will feel confident of securing the desired result as they go up against an opposing side who have won just one of their last 12 games in all competitions, losing eight and claiming three draws in that time.

Mauritania's Aboubakar Kamara looks dejected after Tunisia's Wahbi Khazri scores their second goal on January 16, 2022© Reuters

Mauritania, on the other hand, became the third side to confirm their exit from the tournament after falling to a humbling 4-0 loss against Tunisia last time out.

In a one-sided affair at the Limbe Omnisport Stadium, Saint-Etienne forward Wahbi Khazri put on a clinic as he grabbed a brace and registered one assist to hand the Eagles of Carthage their first win of the tournament.

This was a second straight win for Didier Gomes Da Rosa's men, who were welcomed to the tournament with a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Gambia in their group opener last Wednesday.

Thursday's game will be the second meeting between the sides since their encounter in Group E of the Africa Cup of Nations three years ago, when Mali stormed to a thrilling 4-1 victory.

Mali Africa Cup of Nations form:
  • W
  • D

Mali form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D

Mauritania Africa Cup of Nations form:
  • L
  • L

Mauritania form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L


Team News

Mali coach Mohamed Magassouba reacts on January 16, 2022© Reuters

Yves Bissouma was handed his first start of the tournament against Gambia last time out, and after a fine performance, where he won the penalty leading to the equaliser, the Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder should retain his place in the XI.

Kone will definitely be one to keep an eye out for as the 22-year-old forward has been on song for Mali, scoring seven goals and creating one assist in his last five international outings.

El Bilal Toure is available for selection once again after serving his suspension for receiving his marching orders in the opening game against Tunisia last Wednesday.

Meanwhile, with their AFCON campaign all but over, we expect Da Rosa to shuffle his XI, handing starting roles to a few fringe players.

However, former Fulham forward Aboubakar Kamara should still handle business at the attacking end of the pitch for Mauritania alongside 29-year-old Pape Ibnou Ba.

Mali possible starting lineup:
Mounkoro; Haidara, Kouyate, Sacko, Traore; Samassekou, Camara, Bissouma; Djenepo, Traore, Kone

Mauritania possible starting lineup:
Diop; Thiam, Abeid, Yali, Houbeibib; Karamoko, N'Diaye, Fofana, Mahmoud; Ba, Kamara


SM words green background

We say: Mali 2-0 Mauritania

Mali were denied a place in the knockout stages last time out when they played out a draw with Gambia. However, like all good sides do, we are tipping them to bounce back to winning ways against a floundering Mauritania side and qualify for the next phase of the tournament.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 57.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 21.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.72%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Mauritania win it was 1-2 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Mali in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Mali.


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Game History

How you voted: Mali vs Mauritania

Mali
86.4%
Draw
8.5%
Mauritania
5.1%
59
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Equatorial Guinea flag Eq Guinea32107
Q Nigeria Nigeria32107
Q Cote D'Ivoire flag Ivory Coast31023
4 Guinea-Bissau flag Guinea-Bissau30030

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Cape Verde flag Cape Verde32107
Q Egypt Egypt30303
3 Ghana flag Ghana30212
4 Mozambique flag Mozambique30212

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Senegal flag Senegal33009
Q Guinea flag Guinea31114
Q Cameroon flag Cameroon31114
4 Gambia flag Gambia30030

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Angola Angola32107
Q Burkina Faso flag Burkina Faso31114
Q Mauritania flag Mauritania31023
4 Algeria Algeria30212

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Mali flag Mali31205
Q South Africa South Africa31114
Q Namibia Namibia31114
4 Tunisia Tunisia30212

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Morocco Morocco32107
Q DR Congo flag Congo DR30303
3 Tanzania flag Tanzania30212
4 Zambia flag Zambia30212


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