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Championship header 2

Championship
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Championship | Gameweek 17
Nov 27, 2024 at 8pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Swansea logo

Derby
1 - 2
Swansea

Mendez-Laing (65' pen.)
Elder (34'), Nelson (88'), Thompson (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Vipotnik (2'), Pereira Martins (14')
Peart-Harris (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Derby County and Swansea City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Preston 1-1 Derby
Saturday, November 23 at 3pm in Championship

Swansea City

All competitions
Last Game: Swansea 3-4 Leeds
Sunday, November 24 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Derby County 1-1 Swansea City

 Without the presence of loan striker Yates in attack, we are expecting Derby to struggle to break down a typically-resolute Swansea defence. The visitors have pushed promotion candidates Burnley and Leeds all the way in recent weeks and should be confident of earning a positive result at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawSwansea City
47.8% (-0.497 -0.5) 25.58% (0.056999999999999 0.06) 26.62% (0.439 0.44)
Both teams to score 51.51% (0.189 0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.17% (0.072000000000003 0.07)51.83% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.41% (0.062000000000001 0.06)73.59% (-0.062000000000012 -0.06)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.3% (-0.18899999999999 -0.19)21.69% (0.189 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.15% (-0.291 -0.29)54.84% (0.29 0.29)
Swansea City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.78% (0.399 0.4)34.22% (-0.399 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.08% (0.426 0.43)70.92% (-0.426 -0.43)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 47.79%
    Swansea City 26.62%
    Draw 25.57%
Derby CountyDrawSwansea City
1-0 @ 11.34% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-0 @ 8.67% (-0.125 -0.13)
3-1 @ 4.74% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
3-0 @ 4.42% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-2 @ 2.54% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.81% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.69% (-0.044 -0.04)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 47.79%
1-1 @ 12.16% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 7.42% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.98% (0.037 0.04)
3-3 @ 0.91% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.57%
0-1 @ 7.96% (0.063 0.06)
1-2 @ 6.52% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
0-2 @ 4.27% (0.08 0.08)
1-3 @ 2.33% (0.055 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.78% (0.032 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.53% (0.045 0.04)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 26.62%

How you voted: Derby vs Swansea

Derby County
60.6%
Draw
22.7%
Swansea City
16.7%
66
Head to Head
Apr 9, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 41
Swansea
2-1
Derby
Piroe (8', 16')
Grimes (68'), Wolf (84')
Lawrence (22' pen.)
Morrison (81')
> Preview
Oct 2, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
0-0
Swansea
Forsyth (45'), Willis (82'), Byrne (89')
> Preview
May 1, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 45
Swansea
2-1
Derby
Whittaker (63'), Roberts (66')
Whittaker (62'), Lowe (67')
Lawrence (48')
Byrne (26')
> Match Report
Dec 16, 2020 5.30pm
Gameweek 19
Derby
2-0
Swansea
Kazim-Richards (4'), Jozwiak (37')

Ayew (67')
> Match Report
Feb 8, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 31
Swansea
2-3
Derby
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd22155232112148
2Leeds UnitedLeeds22136341152645
3Burnley2212822891944
4Sunderland22127334181643
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn2111462518737
6Middlesbrough22105738281035
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom22811326161035
8Watford2110473028234
9Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds229582830-232
10Millwall217772118328
11Swansea CitySwansea227692424027
12Bristol City226972628-227
13Norwich CityNorwich226883734326
14Queens Park RangersQPR2251072328-525
15Luton TownLuton2274112538-1325
16Derby CountyDerby2266102728-124
17Coventry CityCoventry2266102834-624
18Preston North EndPreston2241172229-723
19Stoke CityStoke2257102330-722
20Portsmouth204882535-1020
21Hull City2247112131-1019
22Cardiff CityCardiff2146111934-1518
23Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2146112137-1618
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2146112245-2318
> Championship Full Table


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