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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 76.43%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 8.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.51%) and 1-0 (10.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.17%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (2.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Luton Town |
76.43% ( 1.28) | 15.08% ( -0.45) | 8.49% ( -0.83) |
Both teams to score 46.64% ( -2.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.2% ( -0.73) | 37.8% ( 0.74) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.95% ( -0.79) | 60.05% ( 0.79) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.79% ( 0.11) | 8.22% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.26% ( 0.27) | 28.74% ( -0.27) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.82% ( -2.33) | 49.19% ( 2.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.92% ( -1.71) | 84.09% ( 1.72) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Luton Town |
2-0 @ 12.61% ( 0.56) 3-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.52) 1-0 @ 10.09% ( 0.4) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.36) 4-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.22) 5-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.13) 6-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.09) 6-1 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 3.31% Total : 76.42% | 1-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.29) Other @ 0.7% Total : 15.08% | 0-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.24) 0-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.06% Total : 8.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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