Mexico head into their eighth successive World Cup in Qatar, perhaps with more uncertainty than we have ever seen from this team heading into the finals.
Even though they wound up tied with Canada for the top spot in the third round of CONCACAF qualifying, El Tri were not the dominant side we remember from past qualification campaigns.
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The Mexicans have made it into the last 16 in seven straight World Cups, but failed to go any further, losing their final group fixture in 2018 to Sweden, thus finishing second and then losing to Brazil 2-0 in the knockout round.
Here, Sports Mole assesses Gerardo Martino's side's chances of finally taking that next step in the 2022 edition.
GROUP
The Mexicans may not have got the easiest draw, but finishing in the top two in a group featuring Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Poland is by no means an impossible challenge.
Mexico have made it beyond the group stage of every finals tournament since 1994 and they will be expected to compete for first or second in Qatar.
The Argentines knocked them out of the last 16 on two occasions - in 2006 and 2010 - while El Tri have not lost an international to Poland since 1978 when they were beaten 3-1 in the World Cup that year.
Their opening match against the Polish could very well determine how they will fare in the group, with Argentina expected to have no trouble finishing first.
If Mexico can be in first or second by the time they face the Saudis in their final group game, they should feel good about advancing, seeing as the Green Falcons have only won one of their last 12 World Cup fixtures.
FIXTURES
November 22: Mexico vs Poland (4pm, Stadium 974, Doha)
November 26: Argentina vs Mexico (7pm, Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail)
November 30: Saudi Arabia vs Mexico (7pm, Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail)
HOW THEY QUALIFIED
Mexico saved their best for last in the Octagon, scoring 10 goals with 20 minutes or fewer remaining in matches during the final round of qualifying.
They won three matches in qualifying in the final 10 minutes of play, with the most dramatic coming on the road against Jamaica when Henry Martin and Alexis Vega scored a minute apart, as they erased a 1-0 deficit to win 2-1.
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El Tri suffered two defeats in the third round of qualification, one more than they had endured at the final stage of the 2018 campaign, while conceding just eight goals - the second-fewest in the Octagon.
The Mexicans posted eight clean sheets in qualifying, including five in a row to close out the campaign, as they looked composed and well-organised on the back end.
Before their road to Qatar began, El Tri had only failed to win nine times at Estadio Azteca, but that home field was not as big of an advantage for them this time out as they drew three times there in 2022 qualifying.
RECENT FORM
Maintaining a high level of consistency from one match to another has not been easy for this team, who have not won consecutive games since capturing their final two qualifiers in March.
We saw perhaps their most convincing performance since qualifying last week as they did not allow a single shot on target in a friendly against Iraq, which they won 4-0.
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Aside from a 3-0 defeat versus Uruguay and a 3-2 loss against Colombia, their experienced backline has been solid, while they were decisive in the attacking third, scoring four goals, the most since defeating Nigeria 4-0 in July of last year.
Their midfield has looked like a work-in-progress throughout the year, often disjointed and lacking creativity, which has to be a concern as they head into another World Cup campaign.
SQUAD
The roster everyone was waiting for. 👥
— Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) November 14, 2022
The roster with more than 130 million people behind. 💚
The roster that will fight to make history. ✨
Here you have it, Incondicionales. Our roster for #Qatar2022. 🇲🇽🔥 #MéxicoDeMiVida pic.twitter.com/ljdIn65avA
Goalkeepers: Guillermo Ochoa (Club America), Rodolfo Cota (Leon), Alfredo Talavera (Juarez)
Defenders: Nestor Araujo (Club America), Jesus Gallardo (Monterrey), Gerardo Artega (Genk), Hector Moreno (Monterrey), Jorge Sanchez (Ajax), Johan Vazquez (Cremonese), Cesar Montes (Monterrey), Kevin Alvarez (Pachuca)
Midfielders: Erick Gutierrez (PSV), Orbelin Pineda (AEK Athens), Hector Herrera (Houston Dynamo), Carlos Rodriguez (Cruz Azul), Andres Guardado (Real Betis), Roberto Alvarado (Chivas), Edson Alvarez (Ajax), Luis Chavez (Pachuca), Uriel Antuna (Cruz Azul), Luis Romo (Monterrey)
Forwards: Hirving Lozano (Napoli), Rogelio Funes Mori (Monterrey), Henry Martin (Club America), Raul Jimenez (Wolves), Alexis Vega (Chivas)
STAR PLAYER - RAUL JIMENEZ
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Since being used primarily as a substitute in their Olympic gold medal-winning campaign in 2012, Raul Jimenez has been a mainstay with the senior side, leading El Tri with three goals in qualifying.
In three of their previous four Premier League campaigns, the Mexican has been the top scorer for his club side, Wolverhampton Wanderers.
The striker's production has decreased since he suffered a fractured skull during a horrific head clash with Arsenal's David Luiz in the 2020-21 campaign.
Qatar will be his third trip to the World Cup, though he is expected to play a much more significant role than in the previous two when he was exclusively used as a substitute.
Jimenez has a solid physical presence in the penalty area, making him a handful for opposing centre-backs to contain, while his hold-up play and ability in the air allows him to bring his teammates into the play.
MANAGER - GERARDO MARTINO
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Gerardo Martino took charge in 2019 and immediately brought success to the Mexican side, guiding them to the Gold Cup that same year.
Since that triumph, however, Martino has not been nearly as successful, falling twice to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup.
Second place has become a recurring theme for the Argentine manager, losing two Copa America finals while in charge of his home country and one as coach of Paraguay.
The former Barcelona boss has been criticised for his team selections, leaving out the popular Javier Hernandez, the all-time leading goalscorer for Mexico with 52 goals.
Martino employs a high-pressing, attack-minded system, a style that has not always been well-suited to a squad of many veteran players.
WORLD CUP RECORD
Best finish: Quarter-finals (1970 & 1986)
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Mexico's best World Cup performances have come on the only two occasions in which they have hosted this tournament.
They finished second to the Soviet Union in the 1970 group stage but squandered an early 1-0 lead against Italy in the next round, losing 4-1 to the eventual runners-up that year.
When they hosted for the second time 16 years later, El Tri topped their group, then blanked Bulgaria 2-0 in the round of 16 before falling on penalties to the Germans.
Since their exit from the 1986 World Cup, the Mexicans have been eliminated at the round of 16 in seven consecutive finals.
The closest they have come to making the last eight since then was in 1994, when Bulgaria eliminated them in a penalty shootout.
Mexico have squandered three 1-0 advantages in the last 16 during that time too, losing to Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands by a 2-1 scoreline in 1998, 2006 and 2014 respectively.
PREDICTION
The Mexicans have not lost an opening match at the World Cup since 1994, with their most famous first victory perhaps coming four years ago when they upset the defending world champions Germany thanks to a goal from Napoli striker Hirving Lozano.
Those strong starts have enabled them to make the last 16 time and again, but this time around, things do not look nearly as promising.
There is plenty of experience within this group, however they struggled in CONCACAF and they will face much stiffer competition at the World Cup.
Combine that with the fact that morale does not appear to be high within the group given their inconsistencies from one match to another, and this could be the World Cup that El Tri take a step backwards.
VERDICT: Third in Group C
Joel Lefevre
