Needing a two-goal triumph to have any hope of advancing into the next round of the CONCACAF Nations League, Mexico host Honduras on Tuesday at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
In the opening leg of that quarter-final tie, La H came away with a 2-0 victory, as they seek their first semi-final appearance at this tournament since 2019-20.
Match preview
© Imago
It is deja vu for the Mexicans heading into leg two of this quarter-final tie, as they find themselves behind by two goals against the Hondurans, the same deficit they faced a year ago.
If history is any indication, they will fancy their chances of advancing despite their current predicament, having won leg two of that tie last year (2-0) before knocking out Los Catrachos on penalties.
Friday was the first defeat suffered by Javier Aguirre in his third stint as national team manager, and the first time his side had conceded a goal since his return.
El Tri have never lost a Nations League contest on Mexican soil, coming from behind to defeat Bermuda 2-1 in their only previous encounter in Toluca at this tournament.
They have not gone winless in consecutive matches versus Central American opposition since following up a 1-1 draw with Costa Rica in September 2017 with a 3-2 defeat against Honduras the following month.
Mexico have never missed the semi-final stage of a CONCACAF tournament since Colombia knocked them out of the 2005 Gold Cup quarter-finals (2-1).
© Imago
For long stretches in leg one, the Hondurans were on the back foot and appeared to be merely holding on before suddenly coming to life with a goal on 64 minutes.
That goal changed everything as they created several quality scoring opportunities in transition after that and could have won by more than just two goals in the end.
Reinaldo Rueda's men are currently on a three-match unbeaten run in the Nations League, failing to concede in their last two such affairs.
When faced with this situation a year ago against El Tri, the Hondurans paid the price for their complacency and time-wasting in leg two of that tie, conceding the equaliser in the 11th minute of stoppage time and missing two penalty kicks in the shootout.
If they can avoid a defeat by two or more goals on Tuesday, La Bicolor will book a place in the semi-finals of this competition for the first time since 2019-20, when they wound up third.
It has been over 11 years since La H last beat El Tri in Mexico (2-1 in September 2013), while they have failed to score in nine consecutive meetings against them as the visitors, avoiding defeat on only two of those occasions.
Team News
© Imago
Aguirre made four changes from the Mexican side that defeated the USA in a friendly last month (2-0), bringing in Guillermo Ochoa, Israel Reyes, Luis Chavez and Julian Quinones to replace Luis Malagon, Johan Vasquez, Andres Guardado and Roberto Alvarado.
Jesus Gallardo is one cap away from the century mark after being an unused substitute on Friday, while Cesar Montes made his 50th appearance in the defeat.
Raul Jimenez remains on 34 goals with El Tri and can surpass Carlos Hermosillo for fifth all-time with the national team should he find the back of the net in leg two.
Rueda made two changes to the Honduran starting 11 in leg one of this tie, bringing in Alexander Lopez and Jorge Benguche to replace Kervin Arriaga and Anthony Lozano.
Yustin Arboleda came on for Benguche just beyond the hour mark on Friday for his first appearance with La H, while Alenis Vargas and Jesus Batiz are still searching for their first international caps.
Luis Palma made an immediate impact off the bench on Friday, scoring within a minute after replacing Bryan Acosta and netting another one seven minutes from the end, his second and third for Los Catrachos.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Sanchez, Reyes, Montes, Gallardo; Alvarez, Romo; Vega, Jimenez, Huerta; Sepulveda
Honduras possible starting lineup:
Menjivar; Najar, Maldonado, Vega, Rosales; Rivas, Flores, Pineda, Palma; Rodriguez, Castillo
We say: Mexico 2-0 Honduras (Mexico advance on penalties)
Playing in Mexico always seems to be the great equaliser in favour of El Tri, and we expect Aguirre to put together a solid tactical plan, enabling his team to get back into this tie and advance.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
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