Minnesota United will hope to build on their first win of the season when they host Dallas in Major League Soccer action at Allianz Field on Saturday.
The Toros are unbeaten in their previous two matches, while Minnesota came away with their first win of the season on Wednesday, defeating the Whitecaps 1-0.
Match preview
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In their fifth season in MLS, things could not be going much worse for Minnesota, who have fought hard in every game this season, but they have only one win to show for it.
Adrian Heath has seen his side compete in nearly all of their matches so far, and he will be encouraged to see them squeak out a 1-0 win in midweek after losing three straight games by a single goal.
Resiliency has been an issue for this team in 2021, as they have failed to answer back after conceding a goal in each of their defeats to this point of the season.
Minnesota have struggled to maintain a high level of play for 90 minutes, which is why they are sitting in the basement of the MLS Western Conference.
Striker Ramon Abila, who is currently on loan from Boca Juniors, made his first contribution of the season on Wednesday, heading home the only goal for The Loons against one of the best keepers in MLS in Maxime Crepeau.
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So far in 2021, we have seen two very different Dallas teams throughout their opening four matches.
At home, they have looked great, going unbeaten in their three games at Toyota Stadium, scoring five times and conceding only once.
On the road, Luchi Gonzalez and his side have a lot of work to do after being dominated at times in their 3-1 defeat to the Earthquakes, conceding twice in 10 minutes in the second half.
Down the 2020 regular-season stretch, The Toros struggled away from home, winning just one of their last four encounters on the road, including a 3-0 defeat to Minnesota in their final regular-season game.
Their big off-season acquisition, Jader Obrian, has scored in his last two games, including the winner against Portland and the equaliser in the Texas derby last Saturday versus the Houston Dynamo.
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Team News
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Minnesota will be without winger Niko Hansen and centre-back Bakaye Dibassy, as they are both nursing hamstring injuries, while their other centre-back Ike Opara remains out with a concussion.
Tyler Miller replaced Dayne St. Clair in goal for Minnesota on Wednesday, and he came through with several key saves to collect his first clean sheet of the season.
Emmanuel Reynoso had two assists for The Loons the last time they faced Dallas in the regular season, and winger Ethan Finlay has notched three goals for Minnesota against The Toros.
Dallas striker Jesus Ferreira has a shoulder injury, midfielder Thomas Roberts has a leg problem and Kyle Zobeck continues to recover from a hamstring injury.
Goalkeeper Phelipe has started the past two games instead of Jimmy Maurer, making five saves and earning four points for his side.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Gasper, Raitala, Boxall, Metanire; Alonso, Trapp; Reynoso, Finlay, Dotson; Lod
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Phelipe; Munjoma, Bressan, Martinez, Hollingshead; Acosta, Tessmann; Obrian, Ricaurte, Vargas; Pepi
We say: Minnesota United 3-1 Dallas
Traditionally when these teams play each other, we see plenty of offence, with 20 goals scored between each side over their past four regular-season encounters.
Minnesota have played well and could be due for another good result, and this could be the game to get it, as they have won their last three regular-season home games played against The Toros, scoring seven times and conceding only twice.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 51.4%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 24.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Dallas win was 0-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Minnesota United in this match.
