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[monks data]
Morecambe
League One | Gameweek 40
Apr 5, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Globe Arena
Oxford United

Morecambe
2 - 1
Oxford Utd

Wildig (14'), Stockton (25')
McLaughlin (42'), Fane (47')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Taylor (3')
Williams (44')

Preview: Morecambe vs. Oxford United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Morecambe and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Morecambe ended a 12-game winless run at the weekend to boost their chances of remaining in League One, and they will now bid to add further impetus to their relegation battle when they play host to Oxford United on Tuesday.

The U's meanwhile are embroiled in their own battle as they fight it out for a top-six place, with Karl Robinson's side one point adrift of the playoffs ahead of Tuesday's contest.


Match preview

Morecambe's Anthony O'Connor celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 9, 2022© Reuters

Morecambe would have entered Saturday's encounter against Burton Albion in a downbeat mood after failing to win a game in both February and March.

However, 90 minutes later, the Shrimps had a renewed sense of belief after they eased past the Brewers courtesy of a 3-0 scoreline.

The first period ended in dramatic fashion, as Arthur Gnahoua gave Morecambe the lead in the 41st minute before Burton Albion were reduced to 10 men following Conor Shaughnessy's red card, and there was still time for Adam Phillips to double Morecambe's lead before the half-time whistle.

Cole Stockton made sure of the result, netting within a minute of the restart to grab his 20th league goal of the season, while Morecambe were left to celebrate a rare victory.

Sitting two points adrift of safety with six matches to play, Derek Adams will know that the winning feeling will need to become a common occurrence if his side are to extend their stay in League One.
Oxford United's Matt Taylor celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Oxford slipped out of the top six at the weekend after they lost out to fellow playoff rivals Plymouth Argyle at Home Park.

The U's entered Saturday's encounter five points behind their opponents, but with a game in hand, which suggested that the contest would be a close-fought affair.

That proved to be the case as the game was decided by just a single goal, with Joe Edwards striking in the 56th minute to condemn Oxford to a narrow defeat.

Despite being edged out on Saturday, Robinson's men remain firmly in the playoff picture and a win on Tuesday could see the U's move up to fifth position.

They will be confident of doing just that, with the highest-scorers in League One set to face a Morecambe side, who have shipped more goals than any other side in the division.

Morecambe League One form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Oxford United League One form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L



Team News

Morecambe's Cole Stockton celebrates scoring their first goal against Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Cup on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Rhys Bennett returned from injury to start for Morecambe on Saturday and the 30-year-old is expected to retain his place in the side for Tuesday's contest.

Adams is expected to keep changes to a minimum following the comfortable victory at the weekend, but he could make one alteration, with Toumani Diagouraga likely to come back into the starting lineup after coming off the bench at half time against Burton.

If Morecambe are to pick up a positive result in midweek then their top scorer will be key, with Stockton expected to feature in a front three with Dylan Connolly and Gnahoua.

As for the visitors, they are expected to be without the services of Marcus Browne and Sam Baldock, although the pair are nearing a return to full fitness.

Alex Gorrin and Jamie Hanson are not so fortunate, with the duo expected to miss the rest of the season.

In more positive news, James Henry returned from injury to feature as a substitute on Saturday, while Elliot Moore could return to the squad against Morecambe following his injury troubles.

Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Carson; McLaughlin, Bennett, Bedeau, Gibson; Phillips, Diagouraga, Wildig; Conolly, Gnahoua, Stockton

Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Eastwood; McNally, Long, Brown; Sykes, Kane, Whyte, McGuane, Williams; Taylor, Bodin


SM words green background

We say: Morecambe 1-2 Oxford United

Morecambe may have ended their winless run on Saturday, but they will be fully aware that Oxford will present a much stiffer test as the U's bid to clinch a playoff place.

Although Morecambe will be buoyed by their victory over Burton, we think they will struggle to replicate that feat on Tuesday, and we expect Oxford to claim a league double over the Shrimps after winning 3-1 in the reverse fixture.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 27.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.9%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 2-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Morecambe vs Oxford Utd

Morecambe
12.2%
Draw
17.1%
Oxford United
70.7%
41
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