This season's surprise Eastern Conference package Nashville SC could have their spot in the playoffs confirmed by the end of the weekend, should they beat the Columbus Crew on Thursday morning.
Nashville would need to win their fixture and hope the Vancouver Whitecaps drop points against the Portland Timbers to qualify for the playoffs.
Match preview
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Second in the Eastern Conference behind league leaders and likely winners Seattle Sounders, Nashville have operated at the top of the table for much of the campaign and look set to make it to their fourth consecutive playoffs.
Knocked out in the first round of their inaugural Major League Soccer campaign, Nashville have since made it to back-to-back quarter-finals in the past two seasons.
With only three defeats all season, the only thing preventing Nashville from competing for the Supporters' Shield has been their division-high tally of 15 draws.
Four of those 15 stalemates have come in their last four matches, with Nashville desperate to break their drawing duck when they host two-time MLS Cup winners Columbus Crew.
Reigning champions of the MLS Cup, much of the Crew's excitement this season surrounded the proposed rebrand, with their on-the-pitch antics also leaving supporters feeling underwhelmed.
They look unlikely to feature in this season's playoffs, with the side from Columbus currently four points behind Montreal CF in seventh.
A late push for a space in the playoffs is not an unthinkable prospect for Caleb Porter's side, but the American coach will point to a recent run of one win from nine matches as the point where the Crew's season went downhill.
There have been some moments of success for the Crew this year, most notably their Campeones Cup triumph over Cruz Azul – Columbus saw off the Mexican side 2-0 last month in the match-up between the two leagues' championship winners.
However, they struggled to have similar luck against Monterrey in the CONCACAF Champions League, where they were knocked out in convincing fashion at the quarter-finals stage.
Arresting their current slumps in form will be the target for both sides, but given Nashville's tendencies for draws this season, another stalemate is not out of the question.
Yet, if Nashville are to pick up their first win in five, they will have to beat Columbus for the first time in MLS history, with the Crew having won two of the previous three matches and this season's meeting unsurprisingly ended as a draw.
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Team News
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Gary Smith has a full squad to pick from, not for the first time this season, and the Six-String's strong form can be in part attributed to their good luck with injuries.
One of MLS's standout performers this season has been Hany Mukhtar, who has netted 13 times across all competitions this season and the former Benfica midfielder will line up behind Charles Sapong in the Nashville attack.
Unlike their opponents, Columbus will be without a number of key players for the trip to Nashville, with Kevin Molino and Aidan Morris both out with anterior cruciate ligament injuries.
The Crew are unlikely to see the pair again this season, whilst they will be confident of welcoming back Perry Kitchen and Artur in upcoming weeks, yet the two will still be absent for the Nashville encounter.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Miller, Zimmerman, Romney; Lovitz, Godoy, Anunga, Washington; Mukhtar, Sapong, Muyl
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Moreira, Wormgoor, Williams, Valenzuela; Nagbe, Hairston; Santos, Zelarayan, Etienne; Zardes
We say: Nashville SC 1-0 Columbus Crew
Momentum will be key for Nashville if they are to go beyond the quarter-finals of the MLS playoffs for the first time this season.
Partial to a draw, Smith's side will be wary of avoiding another stalemate and whilst playoff progression may be a formality, Nashville will want to ensure qualification into the Leagues Cup with a finish in the top three.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.13%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Columbus Crew win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
