UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Bulgaria
5 - 1
Gibraltar

Antov (23'), Despodov (36'), Kirilov (52'), Stefanov (55'), Petkov (81')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Chipolina (26')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Bulgaria and Gibraltar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Georgia 0-0 Bulgaria
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bulgaria	0	0	0
2	Georgia	0	0	0
3	North Macedonia	0	0	0
4	Gibraltar	0	0	0

Gibraltar

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: N. Macedonia 4-0 Gibraltar
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bulgaria	0	0	0
2	Georgia	0	0	0
3	North Macedonia	0	0	0
4	Gibraltar	0	0	0

We said: Bulgaria 2-0 Gibraltar

Having already earned a shock draw against Bulgaria, Gibraltar will be confident of at least repeating that feat on Friday. Nevertheless, the home side should still have enough quality to come through this contest, even if they are made to fight along the way. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 57.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 19.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bulgaria would win this match.

Result
Bulgaria	Draw	Gibraltar
57.24% ( -0.11)	23.5% ( 0.05)	19.26% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 49.01% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.26% (

-0.11)

50.74% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.37% (

-0.1)

72.63% (

0.1)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.5% (

-0.08)

17.5% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.99% (

-0.14)

48.01% (

0.14)

Gibraltar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.41% (

0.01)

40.59% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.81% (

0.01)

77.19% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Bulgaria 57.24%

Gibraltar 19.26%

Draw 23.5%

Bulgaria	Draw	Gibraltar
1-0 @ 12.38% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.79% 2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 57.24%	1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.85% Total : 23.5%	0-1 @ 6.41% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.1% Total : 19.26%