Before the Armenia defeat, we would have fancied Republic of Ireland to collect at least a score draw against opponents who have taken on a high workload over the past week. However, even if Ukraine make changes, we still expect the visitors to claim all three points in Dublin, and in convincing fashion, too. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Republic of Ireland win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Republic of Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (11.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.

Result
Republic of Ireland	Draw	Ukraine
36.19% ( -0.02)	28.25% ( 0.02)	35.56% ( 0)

Both teams to score 47.04% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.81% (

-0.07)

59.19% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.38% (

-0.05)

79.62% (

0.05)

Republic of Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.78% (

-0.05)

31.22% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.44% (

-0.05)

67.56% (

0.05)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.38% (

-0.03)

31.62% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.98% (

-0.04)

68.03% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Republic of Ireland 36.19%

Ukraine 35.55%

Draw 28.25%

Republic of Ireland	Draw	Ukraine
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.69% 3-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0) Other @ 3% Total : 36.19%	1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.25%	0-1 @ 11.36% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.54% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.51% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.9% Total : 35.55%