Saturday will feature a rematch of the 2021 Eastern Conference Final, as New York City FC play host to the Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer action at Yankee Stadium.
The reigning MLS Cup champions picked up their first win of the domestic campaign last weekend, defeating CF Montreal 4-1, while Philly remain unbeaten on the year after blanking the San Jose Earthquakes 2-0.
Match preview
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Since suffering a couple of early setbacks domestically, the NYCFC team that we came to expect in 2022 have delivered three impressive offensive performances in all competitions to get themselves back on track.
On Tuesday, Ronny Deila saw his side squeak past Comunicaciones to advance into the Semi-Finals of the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) on away goals just days after tallying four times in their MLS home opener.
They are among the favourites to capture the CCL this season, but in the meantime, the Pigeons will be keen to make a statement versus Philly, who they narrowly defeated en route to their first MLS title.
There is plenty to like about their game in recent weeks with nine goals in their last three encounters, although The Cityzens learned a lesson this week about what can happen when you are complacent, conceding three times in less than 20 minutes, losing 4-2 in the second leg of their Champions League tie.
New York are among the best clubs in the league at pressing opposing sides, which allows them to break quickly, while their scoring depth has shone through, as six different players have goals over their previous two games.
The Pigeons are a scary team to play against, with quality all over the pitch, and what is even more frightening is the fact that numerous contributors for this side at the moment are in their early 20s, which means fans of NYCFC have a lot to look forward to in the present and the future.
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Patience is a virtue, and the Union have shown plenty of that in the early going, scoring twice last Saturday, despite having only 31% possession.
That victory not only put this team into a tie with the Columbus Crew for first place in the Eastern Conference, but it also earned manager Jim Curtin his 100th career win at the helm of this side, becoming just the 10th coach in league history to accomplish that feat.
While they are currently sitting where many of us expected they would be, their game against the Quakes was not without its flaws, as they had a mere 56% pass accuracy, which forced them to commit their share of fouls (23).
Last Saturday was perhaps their best defensive display of the young campaign, allowing only a single shot on target as they rarely looked like conceding.
The COVID bug hit this team incredibly hard in the playoffs last year, with nine of their 11 starters being ruled out the night before their showdown with New York FC in the East Final, which they ended up losing by a score of 2-1.
At the moment, Philly look like a team intent on finishing what they failed to do last year, and claim their first league title in franchise history.
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Team News
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New York youngsters Santiago Rodriguez, Talles Magno and Thiago Andrade, all of whom are 22 years of age or younger, have contributed nine goals between them in their last nine matches in all competitions, with Magno scoring perhaps the biggest one on Tuesday, enabling his side to advance to the next stage of the CCL.
Valentin Castellanos continues to search for his first tally of the new MLS campaign, while Alexander Callens scored his first domestically for the Pigeons a week ago.
Anton Tinnerholm is out with an Achilles tendon injury, while Andres Jasson picked up his first point of the season last weekend, assisting on the third goal against Montreal scored by Magno.
Cory Burke notched the winner for the Union last Saturday, the 20th of his career, while Daniel Gazdag added some insurance from the penalty spot in the second half as both of them are tied for the team lead in goals with two each.
Because of a knee sprain, Stuart Findlay will be a question mark to play on Saturday, while Julian Carranza missed their last match through suspension.
Andre Blake only faced one shot a week ago, collecting his first clean sheet of the year, as Kai Wagner, Jack Elliott, Jakob Glesnes and Nathan Harriel were a wall defensively, playing the full 90 minutes in front of the Jamaican shot-stopper for a second straight game.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Jasson, Martins, Callens, Amundsen; Parks, Morales; Andrade, Magno, Moralez; Castellanos
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Elliott, Glesnes, Harriel; Flach, Martinez, Sullivan; Gazdag; Santos, Burke
We say: New York City FC 1-1 Philadelphia Union
There is a reason why these sides both made it to the Eastern Conference Final a year ago, as they are both intelligent and talented, with plenty of quality on defence and in the attack.
The Pigeons are much more potent in the final third, but the Union are as poised and structurally sound defensively as any unit in MLS, and they should be more than capable of limiting the opportunities of New York.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 63.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 16.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 1-2 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
