USA Women will be desperate to consign their shock defeat to Sweden to history as they prepare for their second Tokyo 2020 Olympics Group G battle against New Zealand Women on Thursday at the Saitama Stadium 2002.
While the reigning world champions fell to a 3-0 loss against their Scandinavian counterparts, New Zealand could not get the better of their Oceanic neighbours Australia Women in a 2-1 defeat.
Match preview
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Near neighbours Australia and New Zealand renewed hostilities at the Tokyo Stadium to kick off their respective Group G campaigns in the 2020 Olympics, and the Matildas seemed set to march to a convincing win as WSL duo Tameka Yallop and Sam Kerr put their side two goals to the good before the break.
New Zealand substitute Gabi Rennie would take just two minutes on her debut to make the net ripple as a substitute, but by that point it was too little too late for the world's 22nd-ranked nation, who opened their Olympics campaign with a defeat for the third tournament in a row.
Tom Sermanni's crop sit above their upcoming opponents in the fledgling standings on goal difference, but the Football Ferns' coach has admitted that his side will be facing a US outfit seeking "revenge" at the weekend, so another less-than-satisfactory result could spell the end of his side's knockout dreams early doors.
Worryingly, defeat to Australia marked New Zealand's ninth defeat from their last 10 in all competitions - the outlier being a penalty-shootout win over Belgium in the Algarve Cup last year - but the USA are a team rocked by an incredibly rare defeat of their own.
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The USA's remarkable 44-game unbeaten run came to a surprise and bitter end on the opening day of the Olympics women's football tournament, as Vlatko Andonovski's normally dominant outfit were outclassed by Sweden in a 3-0 defeat.
Emma Blackstenius would break the deadlock with a near-post header in the 25th minute before doubling her tally early on in the second half, and Juventus forward Lina Hurtig put the cherry on the icing on the cake from the bench as she rose highest to head home in the 72nd minute.
In the words of Megan Rapinoe, the USA "got bopped" against the Nordic nation and are already fighting an uphill battle to ensure an expected top-two finish, with the world champions now in the highly unfamiliar position of last place in their group.
Andonovski's first defeat at the helm would have been a tough pill to swallow, but the 44-year-old's crop have another 180 minutes of football to turn their fortunes around and claim their rightful place in the knockout stage, which they have never failed to do at the Games.
With 21 places separating New Zealand and the USA in the FIFA World Rankings, the world champions would be expected to run out comfortable winners on paper, but Sweden proved over the course of 90 minutes on Wednesday that the world beaters are certainly beatable.
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Team News
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New Zealand forward Rennie has put her name in the hat for a starting place with her debut goal against Australia, meaning that Olivia Chance's place in the attacking trident may be at risk.
The quick turnaround in fixtures could see 123-cap midfielder Annalie Longo considered for a start after an unused substitute outing in midweek, while Paige Satchell is another option in the final third.
Meanwhile, the USA featured a vastly experienced lineup for their opening clash with Sweden, and Andonovski will certainly ponder changes following that shock to the system on Wednesday.
Sam Mewis and 110-goal forward Alex Morgan were both hooked at half time during that defeat and could find their places at risk, with Rapinoe and Julie Ertz - now fit again following a knee injury - vying for starting roles.
Veteran forward Carli Lloyd - boasting 307 caps and still going strong at 39 - also struggled to influence the game in a 45-minute run-out, and less experienced players such as Lyon midfielder Catarina Macario - the youngest in the group at 21 - will hope to be given an opportunity to impress.
New Zealand Women possible starting lineup:
Nayler; Green, Erceg, Moore; Bott, Longo, Percival, Riley; Hassett, Wilkinson, Rennie
USA Women possible starting lineup:
Naeher; O'Hara, Dahlkemper, Sauerbrunn, Dunn; Lavelle, Horan, Ertz; Rapinoe, Morgan, Heath
We say: New Zealand Women 0-2 USA Women
New Zealand's opening-day defeat may have been somewhat predictable, but the USA were certainly humbled in midweek.
Both managers have very little time to analyse what went wrong on matchday one, but we think that the world champions will recover from their minor blip and get back to winning ways here.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 57.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for New Zealand Women had a probability of 19.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.22%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a New Zealand Women win it was 1-0 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Women would win this match.
