Tokyo 2020

Olympic Games Men's Football | Bronze Medal match

Aug 6, 2021 at 10am UK

Saitama Stadium 2002

Mexico U23s
3 - 1
Japan U23s

Cordova (13' pen.), Vasquez (22'), Vega (58')
Vasquez (27'), Sanchez (42'), Ochoa (90+3')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Mitoma (78')
Endo (19'), Ueda (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Olympic Games Men's Football clash between Japan Under-23s and Mexico Under-23s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico Under-23s win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Japan Under-23s had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico Under-23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Japan Under-23s win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico Under-23s would win this match.

Result
Mexico Under-23s	Draw	Japan Under-23s
44.93%	25.46%	29.61%

Both teams to score 53.93%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.37%

49.63%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.35%

71.65%

Mexico Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.93%

22.07%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.59%

55.41%

Japan Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.21%

30.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.94%

67.06%

Score Analysis

Mexico Under-23s 44.92%

Japan Under-23s 29.61%

Draw 25.46%

Mexico Under-23s	Draw	Japan Under-23s
1-0 @ 10.26% 2-1 @ 9.14% 2-0 @ 7.76% 3-1 @ 4.6% 3-0 @ 3.91% 3-2 @ 2.71% 4-1 @ 1.74% 4-0 @ 1.48% 4-2 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.3% Total : 44.92%	1-1 @ 12.09% 0-0 @ 6.8% 2-2 @ 5.38% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.46%	0-1 @ 8% 1-2 @ 7.12% 0-2 @ 4.71% 1-3 @ 2.8% 2-3 @ 2.11% 0-3 @ 1.85% Other @ 3.01% Total : 29.61%