Las Palmas make the trip to the autonomous community of Aragon to face sixth-tier outfit Ontinena in the first round of the Copa del Rey on Thursday evening.

The winners of this contest will advance to the second round where they will be joined by 55 other clubs ahead of next month's draw.

Match preview

Diego Martinez pictured on November 9, 2023 © Imago

After narrowly avoiding relegation from La Liga last season, finishing 16th, Las Palmas endured a disappointing start to the new campaign and failed to win any of their opening nine league matches, conceding 17 goals in the process.

However, Los Amarillos have since turned a corner and have won their last two games, with a 3-2 victory against basement club Valencia followed by a slender 1-0 home win over Girona last weekend, courtesy of a first-half goal from Alex Munoz.

Diego Martinez hailed the spirit of his players and the crowd's contribution to Las Palmas' latest triumph, which has seen them climb off the foot of the La Liga table and up to 18th place, just one point adrift of safety.

Before travelling to Atletico Madrid for their next top-flight fixture on Sunday, Las Palmas will turn their attention to the Copa de Rey, a competition that they have never won but have progressed from the first round in each of the last 34 years.

Las Palmas will be considered as strong favourites to prevail against an Ontinena outfit, who will become the smallest locality with just over 500 inhabitants to participate in the Copa del Rey in its 121-year history.

The Aragon-based team have reached the first round proper after beating fellow non-league side Baztan 4-2 on penalties following a 1-1 draw in normal time of their preliminary-round clash on October 9.

Manager Tito Peinado has described Thursday's historic fixture, which will be played around 30 minute away from the club's El Balsal home ground at Estadio Isidro Calderon, as "unique" and "much more than just a football game" for the Spanish minnows.

Ontinena enter this contest in impressive form having not lost any of their last 15 games in all competitions, most recently drawing 1-1 with Robres to remain second in the Regional Preferente - Group 1 standing and level on points with leaders Internacional Huesca.

Ontinena Copa del Rey form:

Ontinena form (all competitions):

Las Palmas form (all competitions):

Team News

Las Palmas forward Oli McBurnie on August 11, 2024 © Imago

Ontinena are expected to name their strongest possible starting lineup on Thursday, with around 30% of their part-time squad also working in the agricultural and livestock sector, while others are university students, hardware store owners and electricians.

Damian Llobet is the club's top scorer so far this term with three goals, while Guillem Aldabo, Elhadji Karamo and Elhadji Samate have all scored two goals each and all four players are expected to be involved.

As for Las Palmas, Marvin Park is set to remain sidelined with a hamstring injury, but both Sandro Ramirez and Viti Rozada were fit to feature last weekend and could be involved again in some capacity on Thursday.

Either Oli McBurnie, Jaime Mata or Marc Cardona could replace Fabio Silva up front, while Enzo Loiodice, Juanma Herzog, Pejino and Dinko Horkas are among those who will be pushing to start.

Ontinena possible starting lineup:
Presa; Thiero, Luis, Bah, Sorinas, Jesus; Dani, Ruben, Serrantes; Samate, Llobet

Las Palmas possible starting lineup:
Horkas; Pezzolesi, Herzog, Velazquez, Sinkgraven; Essugo, Loiodice, Bassinga; Gil, Cardona, Pejino

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We say: Ontinena 0-4 Las Palmas

It is difficult to back against Las Palmas coming out on top in this one, even if they decide to make wholesale changes and call upon some of their B team youngsters. Ontinena will hope to give a good account of themselves, but a comfortable win for the visitors is expected.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 93.67%. A draw had a probability of 4.6% and a win for Ontinena had a probability of 1.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 0-4 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.23%) and 0-5 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.16%), while for a Ontinena win it was 2-1 (0.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-7 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Las Palmas would win this match.