League One promotion hopefuls Plymouth Argyle will be looking to end their recent poor form when they face Rochdale in the FA Cup second round.
While the visitors have lost three successive league games, Rochdale have posted four draws in a row in League Two.
Match preview
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For much of the campaign, Plymouth have found themselves in the top two positions in the League One table, a consequence of a 16-match unbeaten streak.
However, three successive defeats, two of which have come against promotion rivals, have halted Argyle in their tracks, and Ryan Lowe must find a way to lift his squad.
The 2-1 reverse at home to Wigan last weekend was particularly disappointing with the Latics netting their winner in the last minute, a result which saw them move two points above their opponents.
Although Lowe will still have confidence in his group of players, the 3-0 triumph over Sheffield Wednesday in this competition on November 16 seems like a distant memory.
Ryan Hardie remains the top goalscorer for Plymouth, but the Scot has netted just twice in the league since the beginning of October.
At a time when Plymouth have gone completely off the boil, Rochdale have only lost once in 11 matches, that defeat coming in the EFL Trophy.
While Rochdale have posted seven draws during that period, Robbie Stockdale will be relatively content with how his team are progressing under his watch.
Winning just five of their 19 league games naturally comes with a feeling of frustration, but they sit just six points adrift of the playoffs, an acceptable scenario having previously lost four successive matches this season.
The North-West outfit reached this stage of the competition by overcoming Notts County, eventually prevailing 2-1 at the National League club after being held in the initial tie.
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Team News
Lowe has a decision to make regarding his frontline with Luke Jephcott being substituted for tactical reasons during the first half last weekend.
With Jordan Garrick subsequently making an impact, he appears in line for a start, and a further change could be made with Ryan Broom returning to the midfield.
Barring any late fitness issues, Stockdale could stick with the Rochdale XI which earned a 1-1 draw against Exeter City.
No substitutions were made during that fixture, a sign that Stockdale was satisfied with the performance.
Alex Newby may make the substitutes' bench after a groin injury, but Jimmy Keohane and Brendan Galloway are definitely absent through injury.
Rochdale possible starting lineup:
Lynch; Taylor, O'Connell, Dorsett; O'Keeffe, Morley, Kelly, Odoh; Beesley, Andrews, Grant
Plymouth Argyle possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Wilson, Scarr, Gillesphey; Edwards, Camara, Houghton, Mayor, Grant; Hardie, Garrick
We say: Rochdale 1-3 Plymouth Argyle
Given their respective form, Rochdale will have high hopes of causing a surprise on Sunday afternoon. However, despite their recent losing streak, we cannot back against Plymouth, who should have enough firepower in the final third to edge this contest.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 44.26%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
