Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County Under-23s win with a probability of 42.41%. A win for Chelsea Under-23s had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.39%). The likeliest Chelsea Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County Under-23s would win this match.
