Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 67.8%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.76%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.