Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.