Promotion hopefuls Grimsby Town will host Newport County on Saturday at Blundell Park in their 38th League Two game of 2024-25.
Grimsby are in ninth place with 56 points despite their 1-0 loss against Salford City on March 15 and are two points and two places from the last of four promotion playoff spots, while Newport County are in 16th place with 46 points.
Match preview
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The hosts can count themselves unfortunate to have been beaten by Salford considering the victors only produced 0.65 xG, capitalising on missed chances from the likes of Danny Rose.
Grimsby have now failed to score in two consecutive games, and they have in fact scored one or fewer goals in eight of their last 13.
The Mariners could yet claim automatic promotion given they are seven points behind third-placed AFC Wimbledon, who occupy the final automatic promotion spot.
Boss David Artell's team are in poor form considering they have lost two, drawn two and won just one of their past five, though they did triumph in their prior four.
Grimsby's record at Blundell Park is mixed, with the club emerging victorious twice, losing twice and being held to stalemates in three of their seven most recent outings at home.
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As for Newport County, they come into Saturday's clash having beaten Harrogate Town 3-0 on March 15, a game in which they created four big chances and kept a clean sheet despite facing over 1.5 xG.
The visitors had not kept a clean sheet in their previous five matches, conceding 14 times in that period.
Head coach Nelson Jardim oversaw a 0-0 stalemate with Grimsby Town in the reverse fixture on November 16, though it should be noted that their opponents have won two and drawn three of their last five matchups.
The Exiles' form has been subpar, with the club succumbing to defeat in four of their past six games, winning just twice.
Jardim will be alarmed by his side's away record considering his team have been beaten in 14 of their 21 outings on the road in 2024-25 while only achieving three victories.
Team News
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The hosts are likely to start strikers Danny Rose and Jayden Luker ahead of attacker Kieran Green.
Grimsby could field a back three consisting of Tyrell Warren, Douglas Tharme and Harvey Rodgers behind a double pivot of George McEachran and Evan Khouri.
Opponents Newport County are almost certain to select a similar starting XI to the side that beat Harrogate, so expect Cameron Evans, James Clarke and Matthew Baker to appear ahead of goalkeeper Nick Townsend.
Ciaran Brennan, Bobby Kamwa and Shane McLoughlin are candidates to play in a midfield three, while Courtney Baker-Richardson and David Ajiboye could be trusted up front.
Grimsby Town possible starting lineup:
Wright; Warren, Tharme, Rodgers; Svanthorsson, McEachran, Khouri, Hume; Green; Rose, Luker
Newport County possible starting lineup:
Townsend; Evans, Clarke, Baker; Thomas, Brennan, Kamwa, McLoughlin, Driscoll-Glennon; Baker-Richardson, Ajiboye
We say: Grimsby Town 1-0 Newport County
It is difficult to see Grimsby scoring more than once on Saturday, but they are likely to find the back of the net if they create a similar number of chances as they did against Salford.
Though Newport County will take confidence from their hosts' inconsistencies at home in recent weeks, their own record on the road is alarming, and they may succumb to another defeat.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
