Qarabag FK welcome Sivasspor on Thursday night as they go in search of their first points in this season's Europa League.
Sivasspor ran out convincing winners in the reverse fixture recently, winning 2-0 at home to put them three points ahead of Qarabag in Group I.
Match preview
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Qarabag have had a disappointing start to their European campaign, having lost all of their first three games, scoring only once in that time.
Despite their fine domestic form, where they are eight points clear of second place having only lost once in 20 matches, Qarabag have rarely threatened to show their belonging at this level and the odds are stacked against them garnering anything from this year's competition.
Their poor European form extends as far back as October 2016 and they are winless in eight home matches since beating PAOK 2-0.
Should Qarabag lose on Thursday, it will be the first time they have lost four in a row since October 2018.
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Goals from Caner Osmanpasa and Olarenwaju Kayode secured all three points when these two sides met recently, as Sivasspor kept their qualifying hopes alive.
The victory over Qarabag sealed Sivasspor's third win in all European competitions last time out – and three points on Thursday could see them win consecutive matches for the first time.
To do so, they may have to rely on Kayode, who has scored in all three of their group stage matches so far this season, netting half of their goals in the competition.
Villareal look set to go on and win Group I, but Sivasspor could leapfrog Maccabi Tel-Aviv with a win on Thursday, which is motivation enough to put in a good performance.
Qarabag FK Europa League form: LLL
Qarabag FK form (all competitions): DWWDLW
Sivasspor Europa League form: LLW
Sivasspor form (all competitions): LLLWLD
Team News
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Qarabag could look to throw caution to the wind and field a more attacking lineup that includes three up top.
Otherwise, they come into this fixture with a clean bill of health.
Sivasspor have Arouna Kone pushing for a start after impressing at the weekend.
The Turkish side will also be without Jorge Felix as he recovers from a calf injury.
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Mehemmedeliyev; Medvedev, Guseynov, Medina, Huseynov; Qarayev, Andrade, Matic; Ozobic, Kwabena, Zoubir
Sivasspor possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Balkovec, Altinay, Kurucuk, Lichaj; Biglia, Chahechouhe, Sabo, Durmaz; Ndao, Sobiech
We say: Qarabag FK 0-1 Sivasspor
We expect Qarabag's poor form to continue and we see Sivasspor nicking this one by a narrow scoreline, which could see them climb up the Group I table if results go their way.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sivasspor win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sivasspor win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-0 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sivasspor would win this match.
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