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[monks data]
Qatar national football team
Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 12, 2024 at 4pm UK
Lusail Iconic Stadium
Lebanon national football team

Qatar
3 - 0
Lebanon

Afif (45', 90+6'), Ali (56')
Alaaeldin (86'), Ro-Ro (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Haidar (51'), Srour (80')

Preview: Qatar vs. Lebanon - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Asian Cup clash between Qatar and Lebanon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A little over a year after hosting their first-ever World Cup, Qatar returns to the spotlight as hosts of the delayed AFC Asian Cup and will get the eagerly-awaited tournament underway on Friday when they take on Lebanon.

Following China's withdrawal as host due to post-pandemic legal restrictions, Qatar was chosen as the destination and will now host the tournament for the third time in their history.


Match preview

Qatar's Ahmed Alaaeldin celebrates scoring their seventh goal with teammates on November 16, 2023© Reuters

Qatar enters the tournament as the defending champions, having secured their first title in the 2019 event with an unexpected win over four-time winners Japan in Abu Dhabi. However, since then, the Maroons have undergone major changes.

After ending bottom of their group in the World Cup and failing to earn a single point from their three group-stage matches in the competition, the Qatar Football Association (QFA) opted to part ways with Spanish head coach Felix Sanchez.

Carlos Queiroz was appointed as Sanchez's successor and was expected to lead the side to the 2026 World Cup, yet despite winning their first two World Cup qualification matches, the QFA decided to cut ties with the Portuguese manager last month.

Tintin Marquez will now oversee the side for the AFC Asian Cup and has had a mixed start to life in his new role, which began with a solid 3-0 win over Cambodia on New Year's Eve before suffering a 2-1 defeat to Jordan last week.

Nevertheless, the new boss will gain some confidence from his team's historic performance in this contest as they head into this curtain-raiser having not lost a match to this opponent in their last six meetings (W5 D1 L0), which included a 2-0 win over them in the previous edition of this competition back in 2019.

Lebanon players pose for a team group photo before the match on November 16, 2023© Reuters

Few can forget the heartbreak that Lebanon experienced in the 2019 AFC Asian Cup, and they will be hoping to make amends for that disappointment when they take to the field this year.

Four years ago, the Cedars needed to beat North Korea by four goals in their final group-stage match to progress to the last 16 of the competition but found themselves a goal down inside the first 10 minutes due to a mistake by goalkeeper Mehdi Khalil.

Still, Lebanon refused to go down without a fight and rallied from that point on, scoring four goals before the final whistle. Unfortunately, the 4-1 final scoreline was just not enough and saw them crash out of the competition by a painfully slender margin.

Currently 107th in the world according to FIFA world rankings, the Cedars are the lowest-ranked team in Group A of the competition. However, they will be targeting a win against Tajikistan, who are ranked just one spot above them and cannot be ruled out against a Chinese side that have been firing hot and cold in recent times.

Qatar form (all competitions):


Lebanon form (all competitions):



Team News

Qatar forward Yusuf Abdurisag (11) celebrates his goal with teammates on June 25, 2023© Reuters

The QFA announced last week that Al Duhail forward Mohamed Muntari suffered an ankle injury in their warm-up match against Cambodia and will miss the continental tournament as he prepares to undergo surgery.

Lopez called up Muntari's clubmate Ismail Mohammed as his replacement but was dealt another late blow when Osama Al Tairi withdrew from the squad after suffering a cruciate ligament tear just days before the start of the competition.

In an attempt to support Hassan Maatouk in attack, Lebanon have recently recruited Sweden Under-19 attacker Leonardo Chahine, who had scored 18 goals in 33 games in the Swedish third tier.

However, despite finalising the player's passport, the Lebanese Football Association were unable to complete his registration with FIFA in time, meaning that the promising youngster will not feature in the tournament this year.

Nevertheless, the team were able to finalise the papers for Omar Bugiel of AFC Wimbledon and Daniel Lajud of Atalante in the Mexican second tier in time, and both will be available for selection on Friday.


Qatar possible starting lineup:
Al-Sheeb; Miguel, Khoukhi, Mendes, Ahmed; Hatem, Al Ahraq, Al Haydos; Mohammad, Afif; Ali

Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Khalil; Zein, Shour, Sabra, El Zein; Srour, Haidar; Maatouk, Al Haj, Lajud; El-Helwe


SM words green background

We say: Qatar 2-0 Lebanon

The defending champions Qatar are not only the favourites heading into this match but are also fancied to top Group A of this competition. The Maroons have gone through a tricky couple of years behind the scenes and will want to put that behind them with a solid showing on their home patch.

We expect an electric atmosphere at the Lusail Iconic Stadium on Friday and are backing the hosts to get off to a winning start.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Qatar Qatar33009
Q Tajikistan Tajikistan31114
3 China China30212
4 Lebanon flag Lebanon30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Australia Australia32107
Q Uzbekistan Uzbekistan31205
Q Syria flag Syria31114
4 India India30030

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Iran Iran33009
Q United Arab Emirates flag UAE31114
Q Palestine flag Palestine31114
4 Hong Kong Hong Kong00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Iraq Iraq33009
Q Japan Japan32016
Q Indonesia flag Indonesia31023
4 Vietnam flag Vietnam30030

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Bahrain Bahrain32016
Q Republic of Korea South Korea31205
Q Jordan flag Jordan31114
4Malaysia30121

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia32107
Q Thailand Thailand31205
3 Oman flag Oman30212
4 Kyrgyzstan flag Kyrgyzstan30121


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