Luton Town play host to Queens Park Rangers on Sunday afternoon having recently moved ahead of their next opponents in the Championship promotion race.
Just one point separates these two clubs in the standings, the Hatters the form team out of the two after winning four of their last five fixtures.
Match preview
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Given the size of the clubs around them, Luton have been regarded as no more than outsiders to earn an historic promotion to the Premier League through the playoffs.
However, after a run of nine wins from 13 matches since the turn of the year, Nathan Jones and his squad are now in a position where earning a spot in the top flight is an increasing possibility.
Although Luton only hold a five-point advantage over 10th-placed Nottingham Forest, who possess a game in hand, they have the most momentum out of all the teams around them.
Last time out, a first-half strike from Elijah Adebayo proved to be the difference at Coventry City, Luton now possessing the sixth-best away record in the division.
Nevertheless, it is their form at Kenilworth Road which has moved them into their current position, a seven-match unbeaten streak being put together since defeat to Cardiff City on November 27.
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Opponents QPR have barely moved outside of the top six in recent months, a consequence of two bursts of form during the winter.
However, Mark Warburton's team have now only prevailed twice in nine fixtures, both of those victories coming at the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
Possessing a game in hand on third-placed Huddersfield Town, the Hoops are in a better position than at first glance, but they have just four fixtures remaining at their home ground.
On their travels, they have posted three successive defeats to Barnsley, Millwall and Blackburn Rovers without getting on the scoresheet.
Ahead of this contest, QPR are perceived to be the underdogs, and that may be something which suits this group of players with expectations being high throughout the campaign.
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Team News
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With an extra day of preparation, Jones may be prepared to stick with the Luton XI which started the win at Coventry.
Allan Campbell is an alternative to Luke Berry in the centre of midfield, while Cameron Jerome will be considered for a recall in attack.
Goalkeeper Alex Palmer, who has recently arrived on an emergency loan, will retain his spot between the sticks.
Despite a 2-1 defeat at home to Cardiff City last time out, Warburton is unlikely to make major alterations to his team.
Luke Amos and Albert Adomah are both options in midfield and at wing-back respectively, but defender Dion Sanderson serves the final game of his three-match ban.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Palmer; Burke, Lockyer, Potts; Bree, Mpanzu, Campbell, Bell; Clark; Jerome, Adebayo
Queens Park Rangers possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Dickie, Dunne, Barbet; Odubajo, Field, Hendrick, Wallace; Willock, Chair; Gray
We say: Luton Town 1-1 Queens Park Rangers
While there are still 11 matches of the season remaining, this feels like a pivotal fixture, particularly for the visitors. However, despite the door being ajar for Luton to kick on, we fancy QPR to claim a share of the spoils at Kenilworth Road.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Queens Park Rangers had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Queens Park Rangers win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
