Real Valladolid will be aiming to avoid a shock first-round elimination in the Copa del Rey when they tackle sixth-tier outfit Astur on Tuesday night.
The visitors will enter the match off the back of a 2-1 home defeat to Villarreal, which left them in 19th spot in the La Liga table, while Astur drew 3-3 with Union Comercial in the sixth tier on Saturday.
Match preview
Astur have operated in Spain's sixth tier in each of their last four campaigns, dropping down from the fifth tier in 2020-21, but they are currently third in their league table, picking up 15 points from eight matches.
Pablo Detori's side will enter this match off the back of a six-goal thriller, drawing 3-3 with Union Comercial on Saturday, while they have already won in the Copa del Rey this season, beating Promesas EDF 2-0 earlier this month.
Astur have only actually lost once in all competitions since the middle of May, so their confidence should be high on Tuesday, but this will represent a huge step-up in class from what they are used to on a weekly basis.
That said, Real Valladolid have found it difficult to get going during the 2024-25 campaign, and they have conceded goals at an alarming rate in the opening months of the current season.
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Real Valladolid actually have the worst defensive record in La Liga this season, conceding 23 times in their 11 matches, while they have only found the back of the net on nine occasions, so it is not a shock to see them down in 19th spot in the table.
The White and Violets finished second in the Segunda Division last season to secure a return to the top flight, so their main focus for the 2024-25 campaign will be to consolidate back at this level of football.
Paulo Pezzolano's side will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 home defeat to Villarreal, but they did beat Alaves 3-2 in their last away fixture on October 18, which proved to be just their second success of the campaign.
Real Valladolid have never won the Copa del Rey, but they have been runners-up on two occasions, making the final in 1949-50, losing to Athletic Bilbao, before being beaten by Real Madrid in the final of the 1988-89 competition.
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Team News
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Astur head coach Detori will need to assess the fitness of his players following the 3-3 draw with Union Comercial, but no fresh injuries have been reported at this stage of proceedings.
There are not expected to be many surprises when it comes to the home side's XI on Tuesday night, with 20-year-old Alejandro Victorero set to be among the starters, while 36-year-old Cris Alonso should also be given the nod from the first whistle.
As for Real Valladolid, head coach Pezzolano will ring the changes following the narrow loss to Villarreal, with a number of squad players expected to be given chances to impress.
Juanmi Latasa, Victor Meseguer, Kike Perez and Kenedy are set to be among the starters on Tuesday night, while there should also be a spot in midfield for Ivan Sanchez.
Marcos Andre is yet to get off the mark in La Liga this season, but the Brazilian is also likely to be given an opportunity to make his mark in the cup clash with sixth-tier outfit Astur; Karl Hein could also be replaced between the sticks by Andre Ferreira.
Cesar de la Hoz will miss out through injury, while Cenk Ozkacar is again a major doubt.
Astur possible starting lineup:
Delgado; Michu, Ramos, Pena, Fuentes; J Alonso, Alvarez, Cali; C Alonso, Iglesias, Victorero
Real Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Perez, Bah, Torres, Rosa; Meseguer, Perez, Sanchez; Latasa, Andre, Kenedy
We say: Astur 0-2 Real Valladolid
Astur are not used to losing football matches at the moment, while Real Valladolid are finding it difficult to pick up positive results. It could be a close match in terms of the scoreline on Tuesday night, but we would be stunned if Real Valladolid were not the team progressing to the second round when the game is completed.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 83.63%. A draw had a probability of 10.1% and a win for Astur had a probability of 6.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-3 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.14%), while for an Astur win it was 2-1 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Valladolid would win this match.
Matt Law
