Romania and Armenia meet for a crunch match in World Cup 2022 qualification action at The Steaua Stadium in Bucharest on Monday evening.
The two sides sit third and fourth in Group J, just behind North Macedonia in second who currently occupy the all-important playoff spot.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a poor run of four consecutive defeats earlier in the year, Romania dragged themselves back into contention with back-to-back 2-0 wins at the start of September, over Iceland and Liechtenstein.
A draw with North Macedonia slowed their progress, though, and their most recent match saw them narrowly lose to group leaders Germany.
Mirel Radoi's side came into the game having not conceded in their previous three games and they got off to the perfect start when Ianis Hagi gave them the lead after just nine minutes.
However, the four-time world champions hit back through Serge Gnabry shortly after the break and Thomas Muller's 40th goal for Die Mannschaft broke Romanian hearts in the 81st minute.
That leaves The Wolves fourth in Group J but they are just two points behind North Macedonia - who play Germany on Monday - and upcoming opponents Armenia so could easily find themselves in the playoff spot by the final whistle.
© Reuters
Armenia will also be just as aware of the Macedonians' tough game and their own chances to reclaim the playoff spot, though.
Joaquin Caparros's side played out a 1-1 draw with Iceland on Friday - Kamo Hovhannisyan's first-half goal being cancelled out by 18-year-old Isak Bergmann Johannesson - and slipped out of the qualification spots for the first time.
The Collective Team started off their qualifying campaign with three consecutive victories but are now winless in their last four games in Group J and in their last six in all competitions.
With just three games remaining Caparros will be desperate for his side to rediscover their early form and, with their final game scheduled to be against Germany, they do not want to leave themselves requiring too many points at the death.
They will have to overcome the historical form book to grab a win here, with Romania having won four of the pair's five previous encounters.
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Romania will have Dragos Nedelcu back from suspension after the midfielder was forced to sit out Friday's game against Germany, with either Razvan Marin or Nicolae Stanciu likely making way for him.
Vlad Chiriches will be partnered by either Alin Tosca or Ionut Nedelcearu in central defence, with Cristian Manea and Andrei Ratiu battling it out for the spot at right-back.
Reading's George Puscas may continue to lead the line as part of a 4-2-3-1 setup and will be desperate to grab his first international goal in almost a year.
As ever, Armenia's captain Henrikh Mkhitaryan will be the first name on the team sheet as the side's most experienced player and leading goalscorer.
The big news in Caparros's squad, however, was the inclusion of Columbus Crew's attacking midfielder Lucas Zelarayan, who announced himself as eligible to play for Armenia, despite never having set foot in the country, due to it being the place of his grandfather's birth.
Zelarayan marked his debut with an impressive assist for Hovhannisyan's goal and will surely now retain his place in the starting XI.
Romania possible starting lineup:
Nita; Ratiu, Chiriches, Nedelcearu, Bancu; Stanciu, Nedelcu; Hagi, Cicaldau, Maxim; Puskas
Armenia possible starting lineup:
Yurchenko; Hovhannisyan, Voskanyan, Haroyan, Terteryan; Bayramyan, Zelarayan, Grigoryan, Adamyan; Barseghyan, Mkhitaryan
We say: Romania 1-1 Armenia
Whilst both teams will want the win here, they will be even more desperate not to lose. Expect a tight game between two solid defences and most likely a low-scoring draw come full time, which will set up a very exciting end to this fascinating battle for the Group J playoff spot.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Armenia had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Armenia win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Romania in this match.
