Wolfsburg face Schalke 04 at the VELTINS-Arena realistically needing to end their two-game winless streak if they are to retain hold of sixth place in the Bundesliga standings.
While Schalke are now out of the race to qualify for the Europa League, David Wagner will be desperate to end the season on a high after a prolonged run without a victory.
Match preview
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Heading into their meeting with Borussia Monchengladbach in midweek, Wolfsburg would have been confident of getting back on track with their hosts struggling for options in the final third.
However, Oliver Glasner's team were thoroughly outplayed by their Champions League-chasing opponents, leaving his own side under pressure to respond in their final two games.
Due to their superior goal difference, beating Schalke and champions Bayern Munich on the last day of the season will almost certainly be enough to guarantee Europa League football next season.
That said, it is that fixture with Bayern which places even more importance on a maximum return being achieved on Saturday against opponents who are badly out of form.
Glasner will no doubt be hoping that Wout Weghorst can get back on the goal trail, having netted three times in two games before the setback at Monchengladbach.
With European qualification now out of the question, Wagner will simply want Schalke to record a victory by any means necessary before the end of the season.
Schalke have not put together a winning performance in normal time since beating Monchengladbach on January 17, a run stretching 16 matches in all competitions.
Although an extra-time triumph was registered in the DFB-Pokal, Schalke have lost their way, putting Wagner at risk of losing his job in the dugout.
Unless they prevail against Wolfsburg or Freiburg, Die Konigsblauen may finish as low as 14th, the same spot where they ended the last campaign.
Schalke 04 Bundesliga form: LLLDDL
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: LWLWDL
Team News
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Schalke could hand an immediate recall to Daniel Caligiuri, who is available again after a one-match ban.
However, Wagner will be without Can Bozdogan after his sending off against Eintracht Frankfurt earlier this week.
Rabbi Matondo is pushing for a return to the starting lineup, while Wagner must decide whether to use Nassim Boujellab in attack or drop him back into midfield.
Wolfsburg also have issues with suspension after Josuha Guilavogui picked up his fifth yellow card of the campaign.
The visitors are boosted by the return of Renato Steffan, though, and he should line up on the right-hand side of midfield.
Yannick Gerhardt is expected to feature with the aid of a facial mask.
Schalke 04 possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Kenny, Oczipka, Kabak, Miranda; Caligiuri, Schopf, McKennie, Matondo; Boujellab, Raman
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Pongracic, Brooks, Roussillon; Steffen, Arnold, Gerhardt, Schlager; Brekalo; Weghorst
We say: Schalke 04 1-3 Wolfsburg
In theory, this is the perfect fixture for Wolfsburg to get back on the right track, and we expect them to do just that. Although Schalke may improve from their last outing, the home side have lost any momentum which they had built from two draws in a row.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 47.06%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
