Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Reggiana had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Reggiana win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.