After suffering their worst defeat in nearly two years, Sporting Kansas City are hoping that a date with the Chicago Fire at Children's Mercy Park on Saturday can restore their confidence as they look to climb back into the race for first in the Western Conference.
KC dropped to third in the West after falling 4-0 to Los Angeles FC last Friday, while the Fire earned their first road victory of the year, beating the New York Red Bulls 1-0.
Match preview
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Unfortunately for the Wizards, all good things must come to an end, and that was the case for them last week, albeit in controversial fashion.
Trailing 1-0 at half-time, they were reduced to 10 men in the 58th minute in a decision that manager Peter Vermes called a case of profiling on Roger Espinoza, who has a reputation for dirty tackling with 12 career MLS expulsions.
That defeat allowed the Colorado Rapids to move above them in the table, but it also ended the six-match unbeaten run on the road for KC, which was one shy of tying the club record.
Now they are back in Kansas City to begin a three-game homestand against a side in Chicago, who they have not lost to in over five years, while not suffering a home defeat to them since 2012.
Vermes will want to ensure that his side are focused on this matchup and not looking ahead to their fixture with the Seattle Sounders in a couple of weeks, as they are only two points behind them at the moment for the lead in the Western Conference.
While the expulsion in their previous game has been a hot debate, there is no denying that last week KC were as sloppy as we have seen them all year when it comes to moving the ball, and their mental state will be tested on Saturday against a side who are desperate to get back into the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.
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A huge weight was lifted off the shoulders of Chicago last weekend when they were able to finally pull out a victory on the road, ending a winless run that had lasted for an incredible 692 days.
Even though putting a stop to that streak had to have been a massive relief for Raphael Wicky and his team, the fact remains that the Fire still have a lot of work to do if they want to earn a postseason berth.
Chicago are seven points below the playoff line at the moment, and they have a dozen games to try and turn around their fortunes.
One road win is nice, but they will probably need a few more to make up their seven-point deficit, with eight of their final 12 games being away from home, and a pair of crucial ones upcoming at DC United and CF Montreal.
To beat a team as sharp technically as the Wizards, Chicago will need to do a better job of maintaining possession than they did against the Red Bulls when they had only 41% of the ball with a low pass accuracy of 65%.
Wicky and his staff have had two weeks to get them prepared for this matchup, and he knows as his team go into the stretch run, that they will need to be a lot better than they were at the tail end of 2020 when they went winless in their final six games.
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Team News
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Graham Zusi drew even with former KC players Mo Johnston, Chris Klein and Josh Wolff for fourth place in shots on target last week, as he now has 138 in his career with the club.
Gadi Kinda and Daniel Salloi are unlikely to be available after returning from international duty earlier this week with Israel and Hungary, respectively, while Espinoza is suspended.
Felipe Hernandez remains sidelined for personal reasons, while Jaylin Lindsey and Nicolas Isimat-Mirin both have hamstring injuries.
Robert Beric scored the winner for Chicago against the Red Bulls, his third of the year and his first since July 7 as he moved into a tie with Ignacio Aliseda for second in goals this year, but he is still well back of teammate Luka Stojanovic, who has seven.
Bobby Shuttleworth picked up his first clean sheet in his last three games, stopping the only two New York shots that he faced.
Francisco Calvo and Gaston Gimenez could miss this match after being called up for their World Cup qualifiers earlier this week for Costa Rica and Paraguay, while Aliseda is out with a left shin problem and Kenneth Kronholm will not play due to a right knee injury.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Martins, Fontas, llie, Zusi; Walter, Duke, Barber; Shelton, Pulido, Russell
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Bornstein, Pineda, Teran, Sekulic; Medran; Herbers, Navarro, Gutierrez; Stojanovic, Beric
We say: Sporting Kansas City 1-0 Chicago Fire
When you look at the standings, the Fire should be the more desperate team in this one, but they have struggled all year to maintain momentum when they get it, while the Wizards have been resilient and are usually able to correct their mistakes following a defeat.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 64.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 15.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.41%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.57%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sporting Kansas City in this match.
