Sunderland will welcome Sheffield Wednesday to the Stadium of Light on Friday evening for the first leg of their League One playoff semi-final.
The Black Cats finished fifth in the third tier this season, boasting 84 points from their 46 matches, while Wednesday collected 85 points to end the campaign in fourth.
Match preview
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Sunderland finished the 2021-22 League One season with a record of 24 wins, 12 draws and 10 defeats from 46 matches, which brought them 84 points, enough to claim fifth spot in the table, one point clear of sixth-placed Wycombe Wanderers and four clear of seventh-placed Plymouth Argyle.
The Black Cats have been attempting to escape League One since their relegation from the Championship in 2017-18, falling in the playoffs in two of their last three campaigns in England's third tier.
Sunderland will be desperate to secure their spot in the 2022-23 Championship campaign, and a win over Wednesday would see them take on either Wycombe or MK Dons in the playoff final.
Alex Neil's side will bring a long unbeaten run into the semi-final first leg, with their last loss coming at home to MK Dons in the middle of February, and they ended their regular League One campaign with a 1-0 success over Morecambe on April 30, with Nathan Broadhead netting the only goal of the contest.
Sunderland will be looking to use home advantage to claim a positive result ahead of the second leg, and they have been excellent at the Stadium of Light this term, picking up 51 points from 23 games, which was the second-best home record behind Wednesday (53).
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Wednesday were relegated from the Championship last season in 24th position, but they will have the chance to secure an immediate return to the second tier for the 2022-23 campaign.
The Owls won 24, drew 13 and lost nine of their 46 league games this term to sit fourth, one point clear of fifth-placed Sunderland, but they suffered a 5-0 loss when they travelled to the Stadium of Light back in December.
Darren Moore's side also only won eight of their 23 away league matches this season, with much of their success built on their home record, which as mentioned, was the best in the division ahead of Sunderland.
Wednesday suffered a 1-0 defeat at Wycombe on April 23 but will enter this fixture off the back of successive wins, having recorded a 3-2 victory at Fleetwood Town on April 26 before beating Portsmouth 4-1 last time out.
The Owls have won three of their last four league games against Sunderland, including a 3-0 success on home soil this term, so a positive result on Friday would leave them full of confidence ahead of the second leg on May 9.
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Team News
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Aiden McGeady returned to the Sunderland squad against Morecambe last time out, so the experienced attacker is in line to play some part in the first leg of the semi-final.
Broadhead is a major doubt due to the issue that he picked up against Morecambe, though, which could open the door for Jack Clarke to feature in an advanced area in support of Ross Stewart.
Carl Winchester will be unavailable for selection on Friday night, but Dennis Cirkin could be in the squad for the Black Cats, while Leon Dajaku might be involved following illness.
As for Wednesday, Josh Windass was back in the matchday squad against Portsmouth, while Harlee Dean should be available, with the defender recovering from a calf problem.
However, Dominic Iorfa and Ciaran Brennan remain on the sidelines for the Owls, and there are not expected to be any major surprises in the away side's XI for this match.
Indeed, the visitors should line up in a 3-5-2 formation, providing that Barry Bannan is passed fit, with Saido Berahino and Lee Gregory, who have 24 league goals between them this term, operating in the final third of the field.
Sunderland possible starting lineup:
Patterson; Wright, Batth, O'Nien; Gooch, Evans, Embleton, Roberts; Pritchard, Clarke; Stewart
Sheffield Wednesday possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Storey, Hutchinson, Palmer; Hunt, Luongo, Byers, Bannan, Johnson; Berahino, Gregory
We say: Sunderland 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday
Sunderland might believe that they need an advantage to take into the second leg due to Wednesday's excellent home form, but we are struggling to separate the two teams here. There is not an awful lot between them in terms of quality, and the two could cancel each other out in a 1-1 draw.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 46.49%. A win for Sheffield Wednesday had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Sheffield Wednesday win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sunderland in this match.
