Derby County are running out of time to secure Championship survival as they travel to Swansea City on Saturday afternoon.
The Rams are currently 23rd in the table and nine points adrift of safety, while the Swans have very little to play for and sit 14th.
Match preview
© Reuters
Ravel Morrison struck an 80th-minute winner as Derby triumphed 1-0 over Preston North End last weekend. It was their first win in four matches and moved the Rams to within six points of safety.
However, Reading's win over Stoke City in midweek has cut Wayne Rooney's side further adrift and they now have just six games left to play, including a clash against league leaders Fulham on Good Friday after their trip to South Wales.
There has been light at the end of the tunnel behind the scenes this week as US businessman Chris Kirchner has been selected as the preferred bidder to buy the club. After months of uncertainty, Rooney will hope the news will give his side a boost on the pitch.
Derby's away form is atrocious though as they have lost their last seven matches on the road in the Championship, scoring just three times in that run. Of their 20 league away games this season, the Rams have won just two.
© Reuters
Swansea may be marooned in mid-table, but they are looking to end the season on a high and have taken 10 points from their last 12 available.
Russell Martin's side won 4-0 in the South Wales derby last weekend before claiming a hard-fought 1-0 victory away at Millwall on Tuesday night.
The Swans are aiming to win three league matches in a row for the first time in just over a year and will also try to achieve a fourth successive clean sheet for the first time since 2010.
This is the first of three consecutive games that the Welsh side have against teams in the bottom four, so Martin will hope to continue building momentum and achieve a to- half finish.
However, Swansea have only won one of their last nine games against Derby. The two sides played out a goalless draw at Pride Park earlier in the season.
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Swansea midfielder Flynn Downes was left out against Millwall in midweek because of a slight injury niggle, but he should be in contention to return.
Joel Piroe netted his 18th goal of the season on Tuesday night, double the tally of the next highest scorers in the squad Jamie Paterson and Michael Obafemi.
Olivier Ntcham missed the South Wales derby through illness but returned off the bench against Millwall, so will now push for a place in the starting lineup.
Midfielder Max Bird is suspended for Derby following his straight red card against Preston last weekend.
Ravel Morrison and Krystian Bielik were only able to make the bench against the Lilywhites after returning from international duty, but they should be in the starting lineup this weekend.
Wayne Rooney says he may bring some academy players into the matchday squad; 19-year-old Bartosz Cybulski was named on the bench last weekend.
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Fisher; Naughton, Latibeaudiere, Cabango; Christie, Grimes, Downes, Manning; Wolf; Piroe, Obafemi
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Cashin, Davies, Buchanan; Bielik, Knight; Ebiowei, Morrison, Lawrence; Plange
We say: Swansea City 2-1 Derby County
There is much more on the line for Derby but we cannot ignore the Rams' dreadful record away from home. Swansea are enjoying a good run of form and we think that the Welsh side will be victorious on this occasion.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 53.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Swansea City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Swansea City.
