Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.41%. A win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.24%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Sporting Covilha win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
Sporting Covilha	Draw	Nacional
28.14% ( 0.34)	25.45% ( -0.03)	46.41% ( -0.31)

Both teams to score 53.02% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.61% (

0.3)

50.38% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.67% (

0.27)

72.32% (

-0.27)

Sporting Covilha Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.72% (

0.41)

32.27% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.23% (

0.47)

68.77% (

-0.47)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.29% (

-0.01)

21.71% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.13% (

-0.02)

54.87% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Sporting Covilha 28.14%

Nacional 46.41%

Draw 25.45%

Sporting Covilha	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.65% Total : 28.14%	1-1 @ 12.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.23% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.45%	0-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 9.24% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 4.71% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 46.41%