After going down to a sixth successive defeat in midweek, Werder Bremen have been dragged back into the fight to avoid demotion and now meet Union Berlin on Saturday still desperately in need of a win.
A trip to the Alten Forsterei, where Union are unbeaten in the Bundesliga since September last year, represents a challenging task for Florian Kohfeldt's strugglers, who are now just four points above the bottom three.
Match preview
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Having lost six straight league games to slip perilously close to the Bundesliga drop zone, Werder Bremen - who only survived relegation via a playoff win over Heidenheim last season - arrive in the capital this weekend with several points still required to secure safety.
Florian Kohfeldt's side will be desperate to avoid a repeat of last year's nail-biting conclusion this term and could go a long way to booking their spot on the start line for 2021-22 with just a fifth league victory on the road.
After being crushed 4-1 by Borussia Dortmund last weekend, Bremen lost against close rivals Mainz on Wednesday despite dominating possession and firing off 20 shots at goal in a frustrating 1-0 home defeat - the latest in a six-game spell where they have conceded 15 times at an average of 2.5 goals per game.
That result now sees them only four points above virus-hit Hertha Berlin (who currently occupy the dreaded playoff spot), despite having played two games more than their capital-based counterparts.
They meet Hertha's more modest neighbours on Saturday, with one eye on the DFB-Pokal semi-final versus RB Leipzig next Friday, though Kohfeldt must surely prioritise their perilous Bundesliga predicament rather than the still-distant opportunity of ending the season with some silverware.
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Despite their midweek defeat at Dortmund, Union Berlin continue to perform above expectations this season, with a 2-1 win against Stuttgart last Saturday keeping their hopes of a first-ever European qualification alive coming into the campaign's final throes.
Last season was the club's first in Germany's top flight, so finding themselves up in eighth place with only four fixtures to go represents a fine achievement for Urs Fischer and company. A top-half finish is now all but assured for Die Eisernen, who have recorded six wins and eight draws at home to date - conceding just 13 goals in the process.
This week, their inimitable Stadion An der Alten Forsterei headquarters will host relegation-threatened opponents, who would have expected to be sitting above Union in the table, and the home side have only lost there once all season long.
Still in the hunt for a place in Europe next season - just four points behind an expensively-assembled Bayer Leverkusen side who sit sixth - a third win from four meetings with Bremen could help the unassuming Berliners take one step closer to continental competition next term.
Fischer now fields an XI for the third time in a week, so some squad rotation may even come into his thinking ahead of this weekend's game, as one of the high points in Union's history could be yet to have a fairytale ending.
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Team News
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Werder defender Christian Gross returns from suspension and is set to take the place of Milos Veljkovic, who misses out with a broken nose, while experienced centre-back Omer Toprak is still unavailable with a calf problem.
Young forward Nick Woltemade is also out with a knee injury and Leonardo Bittencourt is considered a doubt to start at the weekend.
Joint-top scorer Josh Sargent had a goal disallowed during Wednesday's frustrating defeat, so will hope to add to his five-goal tally as he once more leads the Bremen attack, alongside in-demand Milot Rashica and club stalwart Niclas Fullkrug.
For Union, only Sheraldo Becker, Leon Dajaku and Anthony Ujah are confirmed absentees, while Liverpool loanee Taiwo Awoniyi is doubtful due to a thigh issue.
Urs Fischer may consider bringing Joel Pohjanpalo in for Croatia Under-21 forward Petar Musa in attack, following a blank away to Dortmund, while Marius Bulter could feature on the wing, with Keita Endo's place potentially under threat.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Schlotterbeck; Trimmel, Gentner, Andrich; Ingvartsen, Kruse, Bulter; Pohjanpalo
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gross, Moisander, Friedl; Gebre Selassie, Eggestein, Mohwald, Augustinsson; Sargent, Rashica; Fullkrug
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Werder Bremen
Union have built a fortress on home soil, so are unlikely to give up all three points against a toiling Bremen side still searching for a reversal in momentum before it is too late.
The visitors, though, can pick up a valuable share of the spoils, as Milot Rashica has hit the net twice in his last three games and can help Werder compensate for their woefully leaky defence on Saturday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 45.02%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
