Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 39.89%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.