Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.83%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.