Freiburg will be looking to pile more misery on Werder Bremen when the two teams lock horns at Schwarzwald-Stadion in the Bundesliga on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts are currently seventh in the table, just two points off sixth-placed Wolfsburg, while struggling Bremen sit 17th with just 18 points to show from their 25 league matches this term.
Match preview
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Freiburg have impressively already picked up more points after 26 matches of the 2019-20 campaign (37) than they have managed in the entirety of the last two seasons. They have finished 15th and 13th in their last two campaigns at this level but are on course for a potential European spot.
Christian Streich's side came close to picking up a huge three points away to RB Leipzig last weekend but were ultimately made to settle for a share of the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
The former 2.Bundesliga champions are enjoying a strong season, but they have only won one of their last five league matches, losing to Fortuna Dusseldorf and Borussia Dortmund in two of their last four.
Their supporters will be expecting a positive result against a struggling Bremen this weekend, but Freiburg have only actually won one of their last six Bundesliga encounters with their opponents on Saturday afternoon.
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Bremen, though, have really struggled for form this season. Indeed, a total of just 18 points from their 25 matches has left them in 17th spot in the table, five points from 16th-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf.
Worryingly, Florian Kohfeldt's side are nine points from the safety of 15th spot and have only picked up one victory in Germany's top flight since the turn of the year.
Die Werderaner have lost 10 of their last 12 in the Bundesliga during a torrid run, meanwhile, including a 4-1 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen on their return to action on Monday night.
Bremen have not been out of the Bundesliga since the 1980-81 campaign and actually lifted the title in 2003-04 before claiming second in two of the next four seasons. They are facing the prospect of dropping into the second tier, though, unless a serious turnaround occurs in the coming weeks.
Freiburg Bundesliga form: WDLLWD
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: LLLLDL
Werder Bremen form (all competitions): LLLLDL
Team News
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Freiburg boss Streich could shuffle his pack from the side that started against Leipzig last weekend with Lucas Holer and Gian-Luca Waldschmidt both in contention to make the XI.
Lukas Kubler is still injured, but the hosts otherwise have few concerns in terms of absentees.
Nils Petersen has scored eight Bundesliga goals during the 2019-20 campaign and should keep his spot in attack, while Nicolas Hofler is also expected to feature in the starting side.
As for Bremen, former Everton midfielder Davy Klaassen is available again following a suspension, but Claudio Pizarro, Omer Toprak, Niclas Fullkrug and Kevin Mohwald are all on the treatment table.
Ludwig Augustinsson could overcome a muscular problem to start, though, while the visitors will once again be looking to Liverpool-linked Milot Rashica for inspiration in the final third.
Rashica has scored 10 times and provided five assists in 25 appearances for Bremen during the 2019-20 campaign, including seven goals and four assists in Germany's top flight.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Gulde, Lienhart, Heintz; Schmid, Koch, Hofler, Gunter; Waldschmidt, Petersen, Holer
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Veljkovic, Moisander, Augustinsson; M. Eggestein, Bargfrede, Klaassen; Bittencourt, Selke, Rashica
We say: Freiburg 2-0 Werder Bremen
Bremen have really struggled for form this season, and it is difficult to imagine Kohfeldt's team picking up all three points this weekend. Freiburg impressed against Leipzig last time out, and we expect the hosts to put their 11th league victory of the campaign on the board in relatively routine fashion.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 46.14%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
