Wolfsburg will be looking to climb away from danger in the Bundesliga when they host Union Berlin at the Volkswagen Arena on Saturday.
The hosts were denied a win late on last weekend, whilst the visitors ended their losing streak by recording back-to-back victories over the past week.
Match preview
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After Jonas Wind and Sebastiaan Bornauw had provided Wolfsburg with an early 2-0 lead at fellow strugglers Borussia Monchengladbach last week, Florian Kohfeldt's side looked to be well on their way to picking up a crucial three points.
However, Marcus Thuram's goal for their hosts just before the break sparked life into Gladbach, and this led to a monumental barrage of pressure during the second 45.
Maxence Lacroix's straight red card for a deliberate handball midway through the second 45 did little to help matters, and Breel Embolo snatched the three points away from Die Wolfe with an equaliser eight minutes from time.
Wolfsburg cannot argue that they deserved the win though, but Kohfeldt will be disappointed in his side's collapse from a commanding position nevertheless.
The draw leaves Saturday's hosts in 12th spot at the time of writing, and just five points above Hertha Berlin in the relegation playoff spot, in what has been an extremely poor season up to this point.
Recent back-to-back victories over Greuther Furth and Eintracht Frankfurt had provided hope again following an 11-match winless streak prior to it, but instead of a late charge for the European spots, Wolfsburg are once again looking over their shoulders at the wrong end of the table ahead of matchday 25.
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Meanwhile, the past week has made a huge difference to the hopes at visitors Union Berlin ahead of their trip to the Volkswagen Arena.
A six-game unbeaten run either side of the winter break had Urs Fischer's men positioned amongst the large group of sides chasing a European spot in the Bundesliga, but after suffering three consecutive defeats without scoring a goal during February, their solid start to the campaign looked to have fallen apart.
However, Die Eisernen returned to winning ways with a 3-1 victory over a similarly well-organised Mainz 05 side to finish the month strongly last weekend, in what turned out to be an encounter lacking in big opportunities, but possessing plenty of fire and fight during some feisty moments.
Genki Haraguchi and Sheraldo Becker netted in either half before their visitors were reduced to 10 men, and Taiwo Awoniyi scored his 10th Bundesliga goal of the campaign to extend their lead further before their opponents scored a late consolation.
That win lifted Union into seventh place, and with only three points separating them from Hoffenheim, Freiburg and RB Leipzig directly above them, Fischer's side hauled themselves back into contention for a top-four spot in the process.
On Tuesday, Union put their losing streak well and truly behind them by making it back-to-back victories with a 2-1 success over 2.Bundesliga side St Pauli in the DFB-Pokal.
Becker found himself on the scoresheet once more, and Andreas Voglsammer scored the winner just 10 minutes after his arrival off the bench to seal his side's spot in the semi-finals of the cup, before their focus switches back to a Champions League dream when they visit Wolfsburg on Saturday.
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Team News
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Lacroix's sending off last weekend means the important defender will be missing from Wolfsburg's three-man back line at the weekend, with Kevin Mbabu likely to deputise in his place.
William and Paulo Otavio remain long-term absentees for the hosts, but after missing six months of action, Xaver Schlager returned with a substitute appearance during the draw.
The midfielder is unlikely to start yet though, with the same applying to forward Lukas Nmecha, who looks set to return to the squad following his broken ankle.
Young defender Micky van de Ven misses out due to a hamstring injury, in the only other injury concern for Kohfeldt to contend with.
As for the visitors, Andreas Luthe should return in goal after dropping to the bench for the cup tie in midweek.
Becker's fine form in the last two games means he looks certain to start in attack once more, with Awoniyi and Voglsammer fighting it out for the spot alongside him.
Those look set to be the only changes under consideration for Fischer though, with the boss being set on a consistent side for much of the campaign so far.
Andras Schafer is ruled out for another month due to a knee problem, but the only other concern is Keita Endo, who remains a doubt due to a leg injury.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Bornauw, Brooks; Baku, Arnold, Vranckx, Roussillon; Gerhardt, Kruse; Wind
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jaeckel, Knoche, Baumgartl; Khedira; Trimmel, Haraguchi, Promel, Giesselmann; Becker, Awoniyi
We say: Wolfsburg 1-1 Union Berlin
With Wolfsburg enduring a tough season so far, and setbacks in the last two matches following a brief glimmer of hope, we can see Union frustrating them and restricting them to very little on Saturday.
The hosts struggle in front of goal and the visitors are a well-organised outfit, so it is difficult to see many goals being scored, and therefore we are going for a low-scoring draw, with Union's relative struggles on the road restricting their chances of coming away with all three points.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Wolfsburg in this match.
