World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round

Nov 16, 2023 at 1pm UK

Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Tajikistan
1 - 1
Jordan

Samiev (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Al-Naimat (90+3')
Naseeb (17'), Abu Hasheesh (33')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Tajikistan and Jordan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tajikistan

Last Game: Malaysia 0-2 Tajikistan
Tuesday, October 17 at 2pm in International Friendlies

Jordan

Last Game: Iraq 2-2 Jordan (0-0 pen.)
Tuesday, October 17 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies

We said: Tajikistan 2-1 Jordan

After conceding 13 goals across their first four matches under new boss Ammouta, Jordan must make improvements in defence if they are to have any chance of claiming a positive result against a Tajikistan outfit, who have scored in each of their last six internationals. There is little to separate these two nations, but we believe that Tajikistan will do enough to claim a slender win and open their account in World Cup qualifying. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 41.59%. A win for Jordan had a probability of 31.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Jordan win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.

Result
Tajikistan	Draw	Jordan
41.59% ( 0.15)	27.08% ( -0.04)	31.34% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 49.72% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.56% (

0.13)

55.44% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.37% (

0.11)

76.63% (

-0.1)

Tajikistan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.72% (

0.14)

26.28% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.6% (

0.18)

61.4% (

-0.18)

Jordan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.45% (

-0.01)

32.55% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.92% (

-0.01)

69.08% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Tajikistan 41.59%

Jordan 31.34%

Draw 27.08%

Tajikistan	Draw	Jordan
1-0 @ 11.43% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 41.59%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.08%	0-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 31.34%