After finally ending a losing streak dating back to last year, Yeovil Town welcome relegation-threatened Weymouth to Huish Park on Tuesday.
The clubs meet having picked up just four National League points between them in 2022, and the hosts are looking to complete a treble over their South West rivals after October's wins in league and cup.
Match preview
© Reuters
Bringing a halt to their disastrous start to the new year, Yeovil managed to win 1-0 at Woking on Saturday despite being reduced to 10 men for much of the second half - sealing a third victory over their mid-table counterparts this season.
The Glovers won the opening league fixture between the teams and followed that up with a 3-1 triumph in their FA Cup tie in December, adding three more points at the weekend thanks to Charlie Wakefield's early goal.
Previously, Darren Sarll's side had lost four consecutive league games - with the three most recent being by a 2-1 margin - and crashed out of the FA Trophy to Southern League side Needham Market on penalties.
Having conceded eight of their last nine goals in the second half, they were able to hang on at Kingfield Stadium even though Mark Little was dismissed shortly after the hour mark, so Sarll will be hoping that display of resilience is a sign of better things to come.
Currently sitting 11th - just inside the top half of the table - Yeovil have both scored and conceded 24 times in 23 games, so they give little away defensively but perhaps lack sufficient final-third threat to launch a promotion push.
After spending last week focusing on a recruitment drive, Sarll will now be targeting back-to-back victories - but his team have accumulated just four National League wins from 12 attempts at their Huish Park home so far this term.
Nonetheless, they will expect to capitalise when an ailing Weymouth - who suffered a sixth successive home loss when beaten by Aldershot on Saturday - come to town.
David Oldfield recently joined the club from National League South side Oxford City, signing a contract until the end of the season as successor to the recently sacked Brian Stock, but has work cut out to help them avoid relegation.
As a result of their most recent defeat, which came deep into stoppage time, the Terras remain entrenched in the bottom three and are now nine points adrift of safety - with only the two teams beneath them in the table having shipped more goals.
They are particularly inept away from home: conceding at a rate of over two per game while picking up just a couple of league wins, Weymouth have posted a meagre tally of seven points on the road so far. Surely that limits their hopes of avoiding a third loss to Yeovil since the start of October.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Darren Sarll is expected to be without Josh Staunton and Max Hunt for Tuesday's derby due to injury, but Ben Barclay recently signed on loan at Huish park and captain Luke Wilkinson has returned to fitness. The pair are therefore likely to start at the centre of Yeovil's defence.
After overcoming an injury sustained in training to feature at the weekend, full-back Jordan Barnett may once more start in midfield, alongside Dale Gorman and Matt Worthington.
Midfielder Lawson D'Ath has now signed a contract following a prolonged period of rehabilitation at the club but is unlikely to feature just yet. Up front, Adi Yussuf will compete for a place in the front two after being consigned to a substitute role of late.
Meanwhile, Weymouth could look to bounce back from their late defeat on Saturday by making some changes to the starting XI.
One man who will not be present is influential midfielder Andy Robinson, who remains out injured, but Josh McQuoid - credited with three of the visitors' last five goals - can expect to start for David Oldfield's side.
Yeovil Town possible starting lineup:
Smith; Williams, Wilkinson, Barclay, Robinson; Barnett, Gorman, Worthington; Lo-Everton, Knowles; Wakefield
Weymouth possible starting lineup:
Fitzsimons; Cordner, Drewe, Mnoga, Harfield; Mussa, Solanke, Murray, McQuoid; Shelds, Greenidge
We say: Yeovil Town 1-0 Weymouth
Buoyed by their first win of a miserable January, Yeovil can back that up with a derby victory to start February in fine style.
It may be a close-fought affair, as the hosts are not an expansive side, but Weymouth have been on an awful run and are likely to be caught short again on Tuesday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yeovil Town win with a probability of 59.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Weymouth had a probability of 18.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yeovil Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Weymouth win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
