Zorya Luhansk face off against AEK Athens for the first time ever on Thursday night as both sides go in search of their first points in Europa League Group G.
Having both been beaten by Leicester City and Sporting Braga so far, the two sides find themselves in need of victory to realistically keep their hopes of reaching the knockout stages alive.
Match preview
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These two sides have identical records from the opening two games of this group, having both lost their opening game 3-0 away from home before being beaten 2-1 at home on matchday two.
There is very little to separate the pair heading into Thursday's match, then, so the significance of AEK Athens coming into the contest off the back of a domestic victory could be heightened.
The Greek outfit came from behind to beat OFI and move up to third in the table, but that is just one of two wins from their last six outings across all competitions.
Not since September 2017 have they won a match in the Europa League proper either, remarkably drawing seven and losing two of their nine games since beating HNK Rijeka more than three years ago.
AEK have not lost back-to-back Europa League away games since October 2011, though, and they will be quietly confident of coming away with at least a point from the Slavutych Arena despite their poor form.
That is largely because Zorya are in even worse form; they have lost their last five Europa League group games by an aggregate scoreline of 11-1, and that solitary goal in their favour only came last time out against Sporting Braga.
In all competitions, Viktor Skripnik's side have only won two of their last 12 competitive games - a run which has not only seen them quickly sink to the bottom of their Europa League group but also slip to eighth in the Ukrainian Premier League.
In truth, not even victory on Thursday would raise too much optimism that either side can catch Leicester and Braga, who are firm favourites for qualification from the group regardless of what happens on matchday three.
Zorya Luhansk Europa League form: LL
Zorya Luhansk form (all competitions): DDLWLD
AEK Athens Europa League form: LL
AEK Athens form (all competitions): LDLWLW
Team News
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Zorya Luhansk
Out: Zauri Makharadze (muscle)
AEK Athens
Out: Levi Garcia (hamstring), Andre Simoes (thigh), Damian Szymanski (Achilles)
We say: Zorya Luhansk 1-2 AEK Athens
This is not exactly a battle of the titans in Group G as two out-of-form teams look to avoid the status as group whipping boys. AEK are in the marginally better shape, though, so we can see them just edging this one.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data
Barney Corkhill
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 48.46%. A win for Zorya Luhansk had a probability of 28.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Zorya Luhansk win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AEK Athens would win this match.
