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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Sierra Leone national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 18, 2023 at 5pm UK
Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex
Nigeria national football team

Sierra Leone
2 - 3
Nigeria

Bundu (41'), Kargbo (84')
Dumbuya (72')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Osimhen (19', 32'), Iheanacho (90+5')
Omeruo (46')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Sierra Leone and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sierra Leone

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Sao Tome 0-2 Sierra Leone
Sunday, March 26 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Nigeria

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea-Bissau 0-1 Nigeria
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Sierra Leone 0-2 Nigeria

 While Sierra Leone will be looking to pick up successive wins in the qualifiers, we expect them to struggle against the Super Eagles who should have too much quality to handle. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two nations, we are backing Nigeria to come out on top this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Sierra Leone had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.72%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Sierra Leone win was 1-0 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nigeria would win this match.

Result
Sierra LeoneDrawNigeria
35.04% (-0.653 -0.65) 28.4% (-0.316 -0.32) 36.56% (0.97 0.97)
Both teams to score 46.59% (0.91 0.91)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.28% (1.119 1.12)59.72% (-1.116 -1.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.97% (0.847 0.85)80.03% (-0.84599999999999 -0.85)
Sierra Leone Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.77% (0.151 0.15)32.23% (-0.14700000000001 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.28% (0.167 0.17)68.72% (-0.166 -0.17)
Nigeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.75% (1.194 1.19)31.25% (-1.191 -1.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.4% (1.365 1.37)67.6% (-1.363 -1.36)
Score Analysis
    Sierra Leone 35.03%
    Nigeria 36.56%
    Draw 28.39%
Sierra LeoneDrawNigeria
1-0 @ 11.4% (-0.44 -0.44)
2-1 @ 7.51% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.46% (-0.223 -0.22)
3-1 @ 2.83% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.44% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-2 @ 1.65% (0.057 0.06)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 35.03%
1-1 @ 13.26% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 10.07% (-0.43 -0.43)
2-2 @ 4.37% (0.136 0.14)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 28.39%
0-1 @ 11.71% (-0.11 -0.11)
1-2 @ 7.72% (0.209 0.21)
0-2 @ 6.81% (0.157 0.16)
1-3 @ 2.99% (0.174 0.17)
0-3 @ 2.64% (0.144 0.14)
2-3 @ 1.69% (0.105 0.11)
Other @ 3%
Total : 36.56%

How you voted: Sierra Leone vs Nigeria

Sierra Leone
23.1%
Draw
11.5%
Nigeria
65.4%
26
Head to Head
Jun 9, 2022 5pm
Group Stage
Nigeria
2-1
Sierra Leone
Iwobi (16'), Osimhen (41')
Etebo (49'), Aina (73'), (83'), Odinaka Uzoho (86')
Morsay (11')
Bankole Kamara (32'), Sesay (65'), Koroma (67')
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