Top takes on bottom in the Australian A-League on Sunday morning as the Central Coast Mariners entertain Wellington Phoenix.
The hosts have made a blistering start to the new campaign, winning three of their four opening matches to go top of the table, while the New Zealand outfit are currently occupying 12th position.
Match preview
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Their early-season form represents quite the turnaround for the Mariners, who finished at the foot of the top-flight table in 2019-20.
Head coach Alen Stajcic oversaw a major overhaul of his first-team squad in the summer, bringing in six new faces to the club, alongside the promotion of six youngsters from the club's youth system.
The new arrivals offset 11 departures as the Central Coast Stadium outfit outlined their intentions over the off-season.
Stajcic's men kicked off the 2020-21 campaign with back-to-back victories over Newcastle Jets and Macarthur before the Western Sydney Wanderers inflicted their first defeat of the season.
However, a 2-0 win over the reigning champions Sydney FC last time out will have restored their confidence and belief coming into this one, and means the Mariners have kept three clean sheets in their four outings so far this season.
Wellington Phoenix enjoyed a very successful 2019-20 season, finishing third in the A-League standings.
Their start to 2020-21 has been far less encouraging, though, with Ufuk Talay's men yet to pick up their first win of the campaign.
An opening day defeat to Sydney FC was followed up by a draw to Macarthur and another defeat at the hands of Newcastle Jets, leaving the Phoenix marooned at the bottom of the table with just a single point to their name.
Getting off the foot of the table and securing their first win of the season as soon as possible will be a priority for Talay, although doing so on Sunday will be an extremely tough ask.
Central Coast Mariners Australian A-League form: WWLW
Wellington Phoenix Australian A-League form: LDL
Team News
Stajcic has no injury concerns throughout his squad, meaning he has the luxury of being able to select his best XI for this one.
Nineteen-year-old striker Alou Kuol will be hoping he has done enough to earn a recall to the starting lineup after coming off the bench and scoring last time out.
Winger Reno Piscopo has picked up a calf injury and is unavailable for Wellington over the weekend.
Central midfielder Alex Rufer has served his one-match suspension for a red card received against Macarthur and is available for selection once again.
Central Coast Mariners possible starting lineup:
Birighitti; Nigro, Tongyik, Rowles, Clisby; Nisbet, Bozanic, Stensness, De Silva; Urena, Smylie
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup:
Marinovic; McGarry, Laws, DeVere, Payne; Lewis, Devlin, Ridenton, Davila; Hemed, Ball
We say: Central Coast Mariners 2-0 Wellington Phoenix
These are two teams in contrasting form at this moment in time, and we think the result will reflect that. Wellington are currently enduring a sticky patch, and coming up against the league leaders may be too big a task for them.
Top betting tip
George Cannon
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 29.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
