Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 48.03%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
